000
AGXX40 KNHC 281756
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG NRN COASTAL STATES MAINTAIN A LIGHT E-SE 
FLOW ACROSS ENTIRE GULF THRU THU NIGHT.  WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH 
ENTERS SE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FRI AND REACH FROM 29N90W TO 
25N95W LATE FRI BEFORE RIDGE REBUILDS BACK N AGAIN.  WEAK PRES 
GRADIENT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD KEEP LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT BAY OF 
CAMPECHE S OF 23N ON WED AND THU WHEN CREST OF TRPCL WAVE 
DISTURBS ITS TRANQUILITY WITH MODERATE WINDS FOR TOO SHORT A 
TIME TO BUILD SEAS SIGNIFICANTLY.  GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY 
CONCUR IN THIS SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. 
  
SW N ATLC...
CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WWD EXTENSION INTERRUPTED BY WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH NEAR 65W.  LIGHT E-NE WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT N OF 28N
W OF 75W WED AS BAROCLINIC LOW PRES CENTER FORMS JUST OFF SOUTH 
CAROLINA-GEORGIA COAST AND DRIFT SE INTRODUCING N WINDS ON ITS  
W SIDE.  GFS INCREASE WINDS ON THU AROUND BASE OF LOW PRES AND 
TIGHTEN GRADIENT WITH RIDGE ON E SIDE BECOMING SW 20-25 KT BY 
SUN COVERING N OF 28N E OF 75W.  NOGAPS AND UKMET MUCH LESS 
AGGRESSIVE ON SIMILAR SCENARIO.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC
ELY TRADES BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL AS TROUGH IN CENTRAL ATLC 
RIDGE ALONG 65W WEAKENS ITS WWD EXTENSION.  ONLY PASSAGES OF 
TRPCL WAVES...ONE CURRENTLY ALONG 65W...ANOTHER ALONG 84W 
DISTURB LIGHT FLOW WITH SOME BRISK SURGE OF 20 KT NEAR WAVE 
AXIS.  LOW PRES 1011 MB ALONG TRPCL WAVE NOW AT 40W SHOULD ENTER 
TRPCL ATLC WED NIGHT OR THU AND ERN CARIBBEAN BY FRI.  WHILE 
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE LOW PRES ITS RESILIENT 
NATURE WARRANTS CONTINUED OBSERVATION FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.  

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO... 
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES