000 AGXX40 KNHC 280618 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LIGHT E-SE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF IN THE FACE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST. FAR NRN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W IS RESULTING IN SOME CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WAVE SHOULD MOVE W OF THE AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. RIDGE SLOWLY SINKS SWD THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD TO ALONG 28N LATE WED AND ALONG 25N FRI. THIS ALLOWS WLY WINDS... ALBEIT LIGHT TO SINK SWD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE GULF. A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE GULF COAST LATE FRI AND SAT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS. SW N ATLC... WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH VERY LIGHT E TO SE FLOW OVER THE AREA. SOME CHANGES ARE IN STORE OVER THE AREA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER S CAROLINA SLIDES SLOWLY SWD INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA BY WED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A WINDSHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN THE SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NWP MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT ON THU WITH THE MODELS DIVERGING BEYOND THAT. THE GFS/UKMET AND CMC ARE SIMILAR IN THAT THEY MOVE THE LOW NEWD THROUGH SAT...THOUGH THE CMC AND UKMET ARE FURTHER N WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS LOW MOVING EWD ALONG 31N. THE NOGAPS KEEPS THE LOW STALLED NEAR 31N77 WHILE THE ECMWF LOSES THE LOW IN THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/CMC/UKMET AND FCST A WEAK LOW NEAR 31N77W AND MOVE IT SLOWLY NE OF THE AREA FRI AND SAT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT E OF THE LOW FRI AND SAT. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE NRN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH MOVES IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA SAT WITH SE WINDS PICKING UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC SUB NORMAL TRADES ARE THE RULE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS THIS EVENINGS QUIKSCAT SHOWED 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE AREA. SOME 20 KT WINDS WERE NOTED IN RAIN FLAGGED AREAS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W/83W WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. GFS INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN TRADES OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN WED AND WED NIGHT POSSIBLY WITH A WEAK ELY SURGE. MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 37W AND 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL THU AND THE E CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT WITH A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN THE TRADES TO 20+ KT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AS IT PROGRESSES WWD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB