000 AGXX40 KNHC 270507 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A FAIRLY STRONG CUTOFF LOW WAS N OF THE AREA NEAR 43N43W BUT EXTENDED S TO 28N40W. THIS SYSTEM WAS SUPPORTING A SURFACE HIGH AND FRONT OVER OUR REGION N OF 27N E OF 55W. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WAS MOVING OFF THE NE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK TRPL WAVES WERE ALONG 33W..54W..73W AND 88W. NONE OF WHICH SHOW ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPING. A WEAK LOW WAS OVER THE SW GULF BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND TODAY. THE ATLC RIDGE IS WEAK WITH A 1020 MB CENTER NEAR 25N52W AND AS WEAK AXIS WWD TO 27N80W. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SSMI AND QUIKSCAT SHOW MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. LATER DAY 1 A LARGE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE SE CONUS AND EXTENDING E TO 25N40W WILL KEEP THE WESTERLIES FROM HAVING ANY INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION. THE OLD CUTOFF LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE E TO 40W AND CONTINUE EWD. INVERTED TROUGHS ALONG 60W OVER THE ATLC AND ANOTHER ALONG 85W IN THE CARIBBEAN HAVE WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM BUT PROBABLY WON'T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. ANOTHER ONE WAS OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR 30N92W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE CARIB AND ATLC TRADES AND MOSTLY LIGHT ELSEWHERE. FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS WITH A SECONDARY CENTER OVER THE ATLC NEAR 26N54W. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY ARE IN THE TRPL EASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH TRPL WAVES BUT MOST ARE WEAK AND ALONG THE ITCZ. CONSEQUENTLY THE GFS MODEL BARELY SHOWS ANY RIPPLES IN THE SURFACE PRES FIELD. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND MODERATE ELY TRADES ARE FOUND ONLY OVER THE CARIB AND ATLC S OF 20N. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 STRONG WLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS BEING KEPT N OF 40N EXCEPT OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLC WHERE THE OLD CUTOFF LOW PENETRATES S TO 35N ALONG 40W BUT NO AFFECT ON OUR REGION. A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SRN CONUS EXTENDING E OVER THE WRN ATLC TO 50W ANOTHER MID LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N18W AND EXTENDING W TO 35W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 WITH THE ATLC RIDGE WEAK..THE PATTERN DOESN'T GET ANY MORE BENIGN THAN THIS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WIND PATTERN WITH MODERATE TRADES S OF 18N OVER THE CARIB AND S OF 20N OVER THE ATLC. FOR DAY 4 GFS MODEL SHOWS THE WESTERLIES EXPLOITING A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST AND DEVELOPING A LARGE TROUGH ALONG 70W S INTO OUR REGION TO THE NRN BAHAMAS. THE OLD CUTOFF OVER THE ERN ATLC AIN'T DONE YET AND WORKS A TROUGH BACK TO A WEAKNESS BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND MOST AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS. SOME HINT OF TRPL WAVES ALONG 35W AND ANOTHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 59W. FOR DAY 5..THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST..A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE W TO 80W EXTENDING S TO 25N. THE OLD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC WEAKENS FURTHER BUT A TROUGH STILL EXTENDS SW TO 30N50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK OVER THE REGION. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A WEAK LOW OVER THE NE GULF AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE ATLC ALONG 50W. TRPL WAVES ALONG 42W AND 65W BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE. WINDS OVER THE REGION REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG