000 AGXX40 KNHC 211751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 151 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RAPID SCAN VIS IMAGERY AS OF 1655Z SHOWS HURRICANE DEAN JUST ABOUT READY TO EMERGE OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND IT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN ITS CAT 5 STATUS WHEN IT MADE LANDFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING. AIR FORCE RECON WILL BE BACK IN THE SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING TO ASSESS ITS STRENGTH. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SW GULF ZONE S OF 23N AND IS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE GULF MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT I WILL WAIT FOR THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY TO DETERMINE THE WIND RADII IN THE NE QUADRANT. IF NOTHING ELSE...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG NEAR 30 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...12-18 FT SE SWELLS AR SNEAKING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACCORDING TO THE NAH VERSION OF THE NWW3 BUT THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 9-14 FT OVER THE SRN MIDDLE GULF TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REBUILD OVER THE SW GULF TONIGHT WHEN DEAN MOVES BACK OVER WATER...AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REBUILD TO 32 FT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. ELSEWHERE...THE SWELL FRONT AHEAD OF DEAN IS PUSHING NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND SHOULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST BY WED MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS AND INCREASING SURF...WITH PERIODS INCREASING TO 10 SEC BY WED EVENING. CARIBBEAN... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN WAS DOWNGRADED TO A T.S. WARNING THIS MORNING SINCE THE HURRICANE RADII HAD SHIFTED INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN. THE T.S. RADII SHOULD SHIFT W OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE T.S. WARNING TO EXPIRE. SEAS WILL START OUT 9-14 FT IN SWELLS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING BUT WILL BE QUICK TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE TRADES ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KT OVER PARTS OF THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INCREASING TO 20 KT E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WED. THERE IS A RELATIVE PAUCITY OF STRONG TROPICAL WAVES...WHICH IS ODD FOR AUGUST...SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BENIGN THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD PROVIDING A NICE RESPITE FROM HURRICANE ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC... AN AMPLIFIED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 68W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT...EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THEN ACROSS FLORIDA WED NIGHT. A LOW WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AND IT WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THAT IT COULD DEVELOP...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT THIS HAS BECOME UNLIKELY...WINDS ARE 20-25 KT AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE BUT ARE ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE WAVE PROPAGATES TO THE W. 6-9 FT SWELLS ARE LOCATED E OF THE WAVE BUT THESE TOO WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THU THROUGH SUN...THE RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 31N AND KEEPS TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 15 KT EASTERLIES DEVELOPING FROM THE BAHAMAS EWD INTO THE ATLC. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE WARNING S OF 23N...GMZ082. FORECASTER BERG