000 AGXX40 KNHC 201636 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1230 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING ELY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DEAN. CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KT ELY FLOW OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AGAINST THE EASTBOUND GULF STREAM IS ALLOWING IMPRESSIVE SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING IN EXCESSIVE OF 12 FT. SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF AS WINDS INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE TONIGHT...WITH DEAN MAKING CLOSEST POINT APPROACH TO THE S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DEAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE. IT WILL MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH HOWEVER AS IT EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE...AND WILL PROBABLY INTENSIFY SOME AS IT CROSSES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH WED. STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NW GULF TUE AND WED AS DEAN MOVES TO THE S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY LATE WED FROM E TO W ACROSS THE GULF AFTER DEAN MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE NRN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW E OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF WATERS BY EARLY THU...THEN DAMPEN OUT ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE ATLC. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN TOWARD YUCATAN TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN. THE CENTER OF DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY TUE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DOMINATE THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND STRONG ELY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GENERALLY MODERATE FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE AS DEAN MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. FURTHER E...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE. RIDGING BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH E TO SE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS THE TROP N ATLC...THROUGH FRI. SW N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW IS EVIDENT ON SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA THIS MORNING OVER THE BAHAMAS...BETWEEN SFC RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 29N AND DEAN TO THE SW. WHILE THIS FLOW WILL TAPER OFF NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 60W WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN DISCUSSION AREA NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE RIDGE ON WED...ALLOWING GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 15N W OF 75W...AMZ082 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN