000 AGXX40 KNHC 191741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. HURRICANE DEAN IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CAN BE CONSIDERED THE 800 POUND GORILLA FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. ALMOST ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS W OF 70W CAN BE DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY ATTRIBUTED TO DEAN'S PATH THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS YUCATAN AND INTO THE SW GULF. CAT 4 HURRICANE DEAN WILL PASS JUST S OF JAMAICA TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO AN AREA OF VERY WARM SEA TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. EVEN IF DEAN BECOMES A CAT 5 HURRICANE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SIZE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE... EXPRESSED AS THE RADII OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS AND SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT...IS EXPECTED. THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR DEAN IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SO THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE WARNINGS POSTED ALONG THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE CENTER OF DEAN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE E CARIBBEAN. WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THERE WILL STEADILY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND MON. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE HURRICANE MOVES W TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MAX SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 FT. IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THE PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE SWELLS PROPAGATING OUTWARD FROM THE HURRICANE AND A GRADUAL BACKING IN THE WINDS FROM SW TO SE AS DEAN PASSES N. NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED BETWEEN FLORIDA AND CUBA TO AROUND 20-25 KT. BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOUT 15 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD W INTO THE MIDDLE GULF S OF 26N. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DEAN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE S OF 23N/24N. AS DEAN MOVES ACROSS THE SW GULF INTO NE MEXICO...A LONG FETCH OF ESE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT IN THE NW GULF. IN THE ATLANTIC...A LARGE AMPLITUDE NE-SW ORIENTED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N50W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N54W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE GENERALLY NW OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...CUTTING THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW N ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TUE E OF WAVE AXIS. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 15N W OF 75W...AMZ082 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER MUNDELL