000 AGXX40 KNHC 181828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN... DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE DEAN CONTINUES TO PLOW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 68.6W AT 1500 UTC. PLACEMENT OF WARNINGS WILL CHANGE WITH THE 21 UTC ADVISORY PACKAGE AND WILL INCLUDE NW PORTION OF E CARIBBEAN ZONE AND E PORTION OF NW CARIBBEAN ZONES. FCST TRACK MOVES DEAN INTO NW CARIBBEAN ZONE EARLY SUN THROUGH TUE. BUOY 42059 IN THE WEAKER SW QUADRANT OF DEAN REPORTED MAX WINDS OF 52 KT AND 33 FT SEAS BTN 08-09 UTC. GFDL WAVE WATCH HANDLED SEAS WELL WITH THE SHORT TERM FCST OF THE MODEL WITHIN 1-2 FT OF THE BUOY REPORT. WILL USE THE GFDL WAVE WATCH BUT WITH CAUTION AS THE MODEL IS FCST UNREALISTIC SEAS OF 80 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN CHANNEL MON NIGHT INTO TUE. AS DEAN PULLS AWAY LATER TUE AND WED WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE. LARGE AMPLITUDE TRPCL WAVE OVER THE ATLC MOVES INTO E CARIB TUE AND WED WITH MORE OF AN IMPACT N OF THE AREA. THUS TRADES SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TUE THROUGH THU AND GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE MAY ACTUALLY BE BELOW NORMAL. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF AND 5-10 KT IN THE EASTERN GULF. RIDGE WEAKENS AND WINDS BEGIN INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE DEAN SUN NIGHT OVER THE THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SRN PORTIONS OF E GULF ZONE THEN SPREAD NW THROUGH TUE AS DEAN MOVES THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST FCST TRACK TAKES DEAN INTO THE SRN GULF TUE THEN TO THE W GULF ON WED WITH A LANDFALL IN NE MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN PART OF THE E GULF LATE MON AND THE SRN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF LATE MON INTO TUE WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS THERE. BASED ON THE FCST TRACK WILL ONLY KEEP HURRICANE CONDITION HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SW...NW AND CENTRAL GULF ZONES AND EXCLUDE THE E GULF ZONE. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE THU AS DEAN MOVES FURTHER INLAND. SW N ATLC... AS HURRICANE DEAN MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE FAR SRN PORTION OF THE ATLC ZONE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 1020 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. THE LATEST ADVISORY KEEPS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS S OF THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 30 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD FROM E TO W TO 14 FT PER THE GFDL WAVE WATCH. CONDITIONS SUBSIDE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA TUE...BUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE E PORTION OF THE AREA WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT. THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND THE W BAHAMAS THU WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING ON THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE IN THE BEST GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND A HIGH PRES AREA TO THE N. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 14N W OF 67W...AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB/DM