000 AGXX40 KNHC 171805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN HAS MOVED INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE HURRICANE WARNING OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WAS LOWERED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING SINCE THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVED W OF THE AREA. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED ON THE NEXT FCST PACKAGE PRESUMING THE TROPICAL STORM WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT W OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE STILL AN ISSUE DUE TO THE LONG FETCH EASTERLY SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE. BY THIS EVENING...SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 FT IN E SWELL JUST NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W...BUT THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO A MAXIMUM OF 12 FT N OF PUERTO RICO BY MORNING. THE LATEST NHC FCST BRINGS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND FAR SRN WATERS OF THE W ATLC...AND THESE TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED TO ASSESS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. FOR NOW...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES TONIGHT THROUGH MON. ON SUN...AN AMPLIFIED TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON SUN BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED N OF 18N. A LONG FETCH OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC...COUPLED WITH DECAYING SWELLS FROM DEAN...WILL ALLOW 7-9 FT SWELLS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MON/TUE. THE WAVE THEN MOVES INTO THE W ATLC WATERS LATE MON THROUGH WED AND KEEPS THE WINDS UP ABOVE 20 KT. CARIBBEAN... THE HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 13N AS DEAN CONTINUES WWD...AND THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE NEXT FCST PACKAGE. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY OTHER WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOT MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE NEXT FCST IS A LITTLE FASTER OR HAS LARGER WIND RADII. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE WILL REMAIN HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE LARGE SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN OVER THE ATLC WATERS WERE PARTIALLY ENHANCED BY THE LONG-FETCH EASTERLY SWELLS...BUT THESE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 42 FT WITHIN 48 HRS...BUT THE 12 FT SEA RADIUS IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE COMPACT THAN IT HAS BEEN. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS OVER THE SW GULF WERE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND WERE RUNNING TO 20 KT BASED ON BUOY 42055 AND QUIKSCAT. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ALREADY APPEAR TO BE FALLING AND SHOULD NOT BE A FCST PROBLEM. FOR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 20 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE SUN THEN SPREAD NW THROUGH WED. THE FCST TRACK TAKES DEAN INTO THE SRN GULF ON TUE THEN TO THE W/CENTRAL GULF ON WED. AS OF NOW...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN PART OF THE E AND MIDDLE GULF LATE MON. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT HURRICANE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE E GULF WATERS. HURRICANE WIND PROBABILITIES ARE RUNNING JUST ABOVE 10% OVER THE FAR SW PART OF THE E GULF ZONE. I AM LEANING ON LEAVING OUT MENTION OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...BUT IF THE NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN A LITTLE FARTHER RIGHT OF TRACK...I MIGHT HAVE TO CHANGE MY MIND. ELSEWHERE...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE GULF LATE MON...THE SW GULF ON TUE...THEN THE NW GULF ON WED. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 13N E OF 75W...AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG