000 AGXX40 KNHC 161800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN IS JUST NOW CROSSING 55W INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. MAX WINDS FROM THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT...ALTHOUGH AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE IS CURRENTLY FLYING INTO THE STORM AND WILL GIVE US A BETTER PICTURE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND FIELD IN A BIT. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM 12N TO 17N LOOKS GOOD...BUT THIS COULD BE TWEAKED IF RECON FINDS A LARGER STORM. AS FAR AS THE SEAS...BUOY 41040 JUST E OF THE AREA RECORDED A MAXIMUM SEAS OF 27 FT AND MAXIMUM 1-MIN WINDS OF 45 KT AS DEAN PASSED ABOUT 60 NM TO THE S. ALL WAVE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NWW3...FNMOC...UKMET WAVE...AND EVEN THE NWW3 GFDL VERSION WERE ALL ABOUT 7-8 FT TOO LOW WITH THE MAXIMUM SEAS. HOWEVER...THE NEW MULTI-GRID VERSION OF THE NWW3 SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 26 FT AT THAT BUOY WHEN IT REPORTED 25 FT AT 1200 UTC...SO IT SEEMS TO BE THE BEST PERFORMER. BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE...HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE NEAR 33 FT NEAR GUADELOUPE AND DOMINICA FRI MORNING AS DEAN PASSES BY. FOR THE E CARIBBEAN...HURRICANE WARNING WAS ISSUED N OF 13N BECAUSE TROPICAL STORM FORCE/HURRICANE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. MAXIMUM SEAS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE LOWER THAN OVER THE OPEN ATLC SINCE THE ISLANDS WILL BLOCK THE EASTERLY FETCH OF SWELLS WHICH HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANYING THE STORM. STILL...SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 27 FT OVER THE N PART OF THE E CARIBBEAN. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH EARLY TUE BUT IT'S STILL TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC WIND RADII/SEAS. GULF OF MEXICO... ERIN MOVED INTO SE TEXAS THIS MORNING AND WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN QUICK TO COME DOWN AND THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 15-20 KT OVER THE WATERS JUST SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS. SEAS HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED...WITH THE HIGHEST BEING 6 FT AT BUOY 42019. HERE TOO THE MULTI-SPECTRAL WAVE MODEL IS DOING QUITE GOOD. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WILL BE TRANQUIL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE DEAN. THE LATEST NHC FCST PLACES DEAN NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MON AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE...WHICH PLACES THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING INTO THE SE GULF WATERS. 1200 UTC WIND PROBABILITIES PLACE >20% PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS S OF 25N E OF 91W...AND >5% HURRICANE FORCE WINDS S OF 24N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. THEREFORE...IT IS PRUDENT TO HEADLINE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED S PART OF SE GULF MON AND TUE...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED S PART OF MIDDLE GULF LATE MON AND TUE. ANOTHER HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SW GULF FOR TUE BUT I WILL WAIT FOR THE AFTERNOON FCST TO MAKE A FINAL DECISION. AS ALWAYS...THIS WILL BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS. SW N ATLC... SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WATERS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH THE AREA DOMINATED BY LIGHT WINDS. THAT WILL CHANGE STARTING TONIGHT WHEN WINDS INCREASE OVER THE SE PART TO 20 KT ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF HURRICANE DEAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...AND TO 30 KT NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES...S OF 26N SPREADING FROM E TO W FRI THROUGH MON. THE MULTI-GRID WAVE MODEL DOES A NICE JOB SHOWING 12-14 FT EASTERLY SWELLS MOVING INTO THE SE PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT BUT THEN DECAYING A BIT ON SAT. NEXT CONCERN IS A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH WINDS ONCE AGAIN ON THE INCREASE. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS WAVE...BUT AT THIS POINT THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SO WILL WAIT UNTIL THERE IS MORE EVIDENCE FOR THIS HAPPENING. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... HURRICANE WARNING FROM 12N TO 17N...AMZ087. CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 13N...AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG