000
AGXX40 KNHC 160519
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

TROPICAL STORM ERIN APPROACHING THE TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO MAY 
LANDFALL LATER THIS MORNING. WARNINGS WILL BE BASED ON NHC 
ADVISORY. MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS ARE ON THE N PORTION OF THE 
STORM...SO AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
DECREASE RAPIDLY. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE 
OF ERIN WITH WINDS BASICALLY 10-15 KT THROUGH SUN...THEN THE 
WINDS INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF AS HURRICANE DEAN MOVES INTO THE 
NW CARIBBEAN.

SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE ATLC FROM 1016 MB LOW PRES NEAR 30N67W 
TO 24N71W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL 
REMAIN TRANQUIL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN WINDS WILL 
BEGIN TO INCREASE 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SE PART TONIGHT AS T.S. 
DEAN PASSES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FRI THROUGH MON...DEAN 
CONTINUES TO PASS BY TO THE S ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NHC 
ADVISORY BUT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII SKIM CLOSE TO 
THE SRN PARTS OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE. IF NOTHING ELSE...WINDS 
WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED TO 30 KT OFF THE N COASTS OF HISPANIOLA 
AND CUBA.

T.S. DEAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN ABOUT 625 NM E OF 
BARBADOS. AT DEAN'S CURRENT PACE AND FCST INTENSITY...TROPICAL 
STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL BE 
ISSUED BASED ON THE LATEST 0900 UTC NHC ADVISORY. DEAN IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN N FRI AND MOVE GENERALLY 
WNW...THEN MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SOMETIME SUN EVENING. 
BASED ON THESE TRENDS...THE HEADLINE FOR THE E CARIBBEAN WILL 
CONTINUE AS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI THROUGH SUN N OF 
13N...AND FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN AS HURRICANE 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED E PART LATE SUN AND MON.

WARNINGS...
SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY

ATLANTIC...
HURRICANE WARNING FROM 12N TO 18N...AMZ087.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO... 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 26N W OF 95W...GMZ080.

FORECASTER DGS