000 AGXX40 KNHC 151820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... NOAA RECONNAISSANCE FOUND A CLOSED CENTER AND SUFFICIENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN ORDER FOR T.D. FIVE TO BE CLASSIFIED AS T.S. ERIN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...BUT THE WIND FIELD SHOULD EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS REALLY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF MODEL APPEARS TO BE DOING A REASONABLE JOB SO THE FCST WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THAT. BECAUSE OF THE DEFICIENCIES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE VARIOUS WAVE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN DOING A MEDIOCRE JOB. THE NWW3 GFDL VERSION IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BUILDING SEAS...BUT IT APPEARS TO DISPLACE THE HIGHEST SEAS A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE NE OF THE CENTER AND STILL A LITTLE TOO LOW. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT UNTIL ERIN MAKES LANDFALL THU MORNING. WARNING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THU OVER THE NW GULF S OF 29N W OF 93W. A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST BEGINNING THU NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT SUN...THEN LIFTS N A BIT ON MON. BASED ON THE FCST TRENDS OF T.S. DEAN...WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF LATE SUN INTO MON AS THE SYSTEM PASSES S OF CUBA...POSSIBLY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... T.S. DEAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN ABOUT 475 NM E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS IT MOVES TO THE W AT A SPEEDY 15-20 KT. AT DEAN'S CURRENT PACE AND FCST INTENSITY...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON THU. HENCE...A HURRICANE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FROM 12N TO 18N IN THE NEXT FCST PACKAGE. DEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS ON FRI AND MOVE GENERALLY WNW...THEN MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS SOMETIME SUN EVENING. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...THE HEADLINE FOR THE E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE AS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI THROUGH SUN N OF 13N...AND FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN AS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED E PART LATE SUN AND MON. CURRENTLY...THE UKMET WAVE MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR DEAN...WITH BUOY 41041 REPORTING 14/15 FT SEAS AND THE MODEL SHOWING 14-17 FT IN THAT AREA. SW N ATLC... A SURFACE TROUGH LIES OVER THE W ATLC WATERS FROM 31N68W TO THE BAHAMAS AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY W TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON THU. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ARE NOW SW 10-15 KT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SE PART THU NIGHT AS T.S. DEAN PASSES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FRI THROUGH MON...DEAN CONTINUES TO PASS BY TO THE S ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY BUT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII SKIM PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO THE SRN PARTS OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE. IF NOTHING ELSE...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED TO 30 KT OFF THE N COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA WITH THE CAVEAT THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE S OF ABOUT 21N MAINLY SAT THROUGH MON. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... HURRICANE WARNING FROM 12N TO 18N...AMZ087. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 29N W OF 93W...GMZ080. FORECASTER BERG