000
AGXX40 KNHC 150803 AAA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMMENDED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

...AMMENDED FOR UPDATED OBS AND GHUIDANCE...

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO AMMENDED...TD 5 ESTIMATED NEAR 24.3N91.4W ATTM 
MOVING 312/09 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME SLY SHEAR AND 
STRENGTHEN TO WEAK 35-40 KT TS AND MOVE INLAND SE TEXAS THU THEN 
QUICKLY OPEN TO A TROUGH. ASSOCIATED WINDS GREATER 20 KT 
CURRENTLY ABOUT 180 NM OVER NW QUADRANT PER 0026Z QSCAT PASS AND 
240 NE QUADRANT PER 06Z BUOYS. LATEST ALTIMETER PASS WAS 2130Z 
WITH HEIGHTS TO ONLY 6 FT BUT EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD RAPIDLY JUST 
NE OF MAX WINDS BUT NWW3 NAH NOT MUCH HELP LATEST RUN...SO WILL 
GO WITH WIND GENERATED SEAS AND EXPECTING SOME TRAPPED SWELL TO 
MAX AT 15 FT JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP WEAK 
TROUGH N OF THE NE WATERS BLOCKED BY WEAK ATLC RIDGE THROUGH 
FRI...THEN TROUGH SLIPS SE OVER EXTREME NE WATERS SAT WITH THE 
TROUGH THEN DRIFTING W ON SUN ACCOMPANIED WITH VARIABLE 5 KT 
WINDS OVER WATERS N OF 28N E OF 90W...AND ONLY SLIGHT INCREASE 
IN MOISTURE.

TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W ATTM WAS 
RELOCATED AGAIN TODAY BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE BE MOVING W ABOUT 
17 KT AS IS THE WAVE OVER E ATLC AND TS DEAN. CURRENT N-S LINE 
OF TOWERING CU AND DUST SUGGESTS NEW POSITION IS ACCURATE...SO 
EXPECT WAVE TO ENTER CARIBBEAN EARLY TONIGHT AND ALONG 65W 
THU...72W FRI...77W SAT AND 82W SUN. THE BIG PROBLEM...TS DEAN 
STRENGTHENING NEAR 12N43W WITH LATEST NHC TRACK S OF YESTERDAY'S 
TRACK AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. LATEST NWW3 NAH HAS A HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM...AND 
BUILDS SEAS TO 32 FT ON THU NIGHT AND FRI AS IT MOVES THROUGH 
TROPICAL ATLC ZONE AMZ087...AND CORRECTLY SUBSIDES SEAS AFTER 
PASSING THROUGH ISLAND CHAIN TO MAX OF 26 FT FRI NIGHT...THEN 
BUILDS SEAS BACK TO 33 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT OVER WATERS S OF 
PUERTO RICO. SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT THIS GUIDANCE.

SW N ATLC...BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG 31N62W 
25N75W ATTM. ATLC RIDGE ALONG 27N55W 25N70W WILL BUILD W AND 
PUSH REMNANTS OF TROUGH SLOWLY W THROUGH THU WITH THE TROUGH 
LOSING IDENTITY THU NIGHT IN MODELS AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W ALONG 
30N TO FL COAST AND CONTINUES FRI THROUGH SUN. WITH TRACK OF TC 
DEAN SHIFTED FURTHER S OVER CARIBBEAN...TS FORCE WINDS IN LATEST 
PACKAGE MAY ONLY EFFECT MONA PASSAGE WITH MOSTLY 20-25 KT 
EXTENDING INTO WATERS OF SW ATLC ZONE. WINDS...ELY 20 KT OR 
GREATER...WILL BEGIN FRI AFTERNOON NEAR 20N65W AND SPREAD N TO 
COVER ALL WATERS S OF 27N E OF 76W SUN. THE NWW3 NAH SEAS 
HEIGHTS ALSO BEGIN AT 8 FT NEAR 20N65W FRI MORNING IN THE 
ADVANCE ELY SWELL AND BUILD 8-12 FT SEAS ALL WATERS S OF 27N E 
OF 77W SUN...WITH 8 FT NE-E SWELLS MIGRATING W AROUND THE 
SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS AND INTO WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUN 
NIGHT.    

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
AMZ087...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI 
NIGHT FROM 12N TO 18N.

CARIBBEAN...
AMZ086...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 18N E OF 75W FRI 
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF MEXICO...AMMENDED 
GMZ080...TS CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 25N TO 29N W OF 93W TONIGHT 
AND THU.

FORECASTER NELSON