000 AGXX40 KNHC 141839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...LOW PRES 1007 MB FORMING NEAR 22N89W DRIFTING NW REACHING COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WHICH ENHANCED CONVECTION AROUND LOW PRES DUE TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT HAS MOVED W OVER SRN TEXAS LEAVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ESTABLISH EFFICIENT OUTFLOW OVER LOW PRES. APPROACHING TRPCL WAVE CREST CAN SUPPLY ENOUGH MECHANICAL LIFT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM A CONCERN SINCE IT COULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY LEAVING VERY LITTLE TIME FOR ADVISORIES TO REACH COASTAL INTERESTS. EVEN IF IT DOES NOT DEVELOP...WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 10 FT CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN 240 NM OF SYSTEM. WIND AND SEAS RETURN TO NORMAL VALUES UPON LANDFALL. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W MOVING W 15-20 KT SHOULD TEMPORARILY INCREASE WINDS AND BUILD SEAS WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS THROUGH ITS PATH ACROSS TRPCL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF TRPCL STORM DEAN...WHICH TAKES CENTER STAGE IN FORECAST AREAS WED NIGHT AND THEREAFTER. GLOBAL MODELS BRING DEAN AS A FULL FLEDGE HURRICANE INTO TRPCL N ATLC WITH ITS NRN SEMICIRCLE BRUSHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND GREATER ANTILLES FROM SAT THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER S INTO SW N ATLC THAN EXPECTED WITH 20 KT SW WITHIN 360 NM E OF BOUNDARY. TROUGH DISSIPATES THU NIGHT BUT BY THAT TIME DEAN...EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE... SHOULD BE STARTING TO INCREASE WIND AND SEAS OVER EXTREME SE PORTION. PROXIMITY OF DEAN ALONG ISLAND CHAIN WILL KEEP HIGH WIND AND ROUGH SEAS OVER SW N ATLC S OF 27N/28N. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... AMZ087...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI THROUGH SUN N OF 15N. ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI THROUGH SUN ELSEWHERE N OF 13N. CARIBBEAN... AMZ086...HURRICANE CONDITIONS N OF 16N E OF 70W THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES