000
AGXX40 KNHC 140628
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 26N93W SHIFTING W AT FAIR 
CLIP. DIFFLUENCE E OF UPPER LOW MASKING POSITION OF NORTHERN 
EXTENSION OF TROPICAL WAVE AND EARLIER SHIFTS RELOCATED WAVE
TO ALONG 89W AT 00Z. STILL EXPECT THIS NORTHERN SEGMENT OF WAVE 
TO SEPARATE FROM PARENT WAVE THAT WILL CONTINUE W AT 15 KT 
THROUGH MEXICO AND E PAC. WITH LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
OVER GULF OF MEXICO E OF THE UPPER CYCLONE...FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR LOW PRES OR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WAVE SEGMENT. EXPECT THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH 
OR LOW PRES TO REACH COAST OF NE OLD MEXICO OR EXTREME S TEXAS 
AROUND SUNRISE THU. WILL BUILD WIND FIELD OF 20 TO 25 KT AROUND 
LOW WITH MAX SEAS 10 FT THROUGH 48 HOURS. WEAK RIDGE OVER NE 
WATERS WILL RETRACT E TONIGHT AS WEAK TROUGH STALLS OVER NE 
WATERS THROUGH THU THEN DRIFT E FRI AND SAT ALLOWING WEAK RIDGE 
TO BUILD NW TO SE OVER NORTHERN WATERS. 
      
TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...RE-ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL WAVES 
DURING PREVIOUS SHIFTS DROPPED THE SERIES OF WEAK TROPICAL 
WAVES. CYCLONIC TURNING ON NIGHT CHANNEL SUGGESTS CURRENT WEAK 
WAVE OVER E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W ACCOMPANIED BY AREA SHOWERS NEAR 
14.5N64W...HOWEVER MISSED BY LATEST QSCAT AND ASCAT. TROPICAL 
WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 17N ALONG 48W IS MOVING ONLY ABOUT 10 KT 
WHILE TD FOUR TO ITS E IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 17 KT. EXPECT THE 
WAVE TO REACH 55W AT SUNSET WED AND ENTER E CARIBBEAN MIDDAY FRI 
AND ALONG 67W SUNSET SAT. ALTHOUGH TD 4 CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 
ELY SHEAR...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT TO MINIMAL TS TODAY AND HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND AS 
CYCLONE PASSES NEAR NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. NWW3 JUMPS ON 
ASSOCIATED SEA HEIGHTS...BUT WITH CURRENT SHEAR AND FAST 
WESTWARD TRANSLATION WILL TONE DOWN SEAS HEIGHTS FIRST PART OF 
FORECAST PACKAGE AND THEN GO MOSTLY WITH GUIDANCE EXTENDED 
PERIOD.     

SW N ATLC...BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 31N67W TO NW 
BAHAMAS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE STALLING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS SUNRISE WED THEN MEANDER AROUND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND 
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THU. ATLC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE E OF THE 
TROUGH RETRACTING SLIGHTLY E ALONG 28N WHILE ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE 
WILL BUILD SW OVER THE NW WATERS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WED AND 
THU. ON FRI THE ATLC RIDGE WILL REBUILD ALONG 30N55W TO FLORIDA 
AT 28N. DEPENDING ON THE SIZE...STRENGTH AND ACTUAL TRACK OF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE...COULD SEE TS WARNING EXTREME SE PORTION OF SW 
ATLC ZONE LATE SAT NIGHT. 

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
AMZ087...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT N OF 14N.

CARIBBEAN...
AMZ086...TS CONDITIONS N OF 16N E OF 65W SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON