000 AGXX40 KNHC 130607 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 25N86W SHIFTING W WITH TIME. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 24N ALONG 87W MAY SEPARATE FROM PARENT WAVE THAT WILL CONTINUE W AT 15 KT THROUGH MEXICO AND E PAC. THIS REMNANT LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW ACROSS CENTRAL GULF WATERS...UNDER DIFFLUENT QUADRANT OF UPPER CYCLONE THUS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION...REACHING TEXAS COAST AROUND SUNRISE WED. RIDGE OVER NE WATERS WILL BUILD W WED WITH TROUGH DISSIPATING WED NIGHT. WINDS EITHER SIDE OF SURFACE TROUGH INCREASE TO 15-20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL. ON FRI WINDS DIMINISH TO E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER GULF OF HONDURAS WILL MOVE W OF AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 79W IS UNDER THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 16N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SHOULD SHIFT W THROUGH TUE WITH WAVE AXIS MOVING W OF GULF OF HONDURAS TUE NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE RELOCATED TO ALONG 45W IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 KT NE-SE WIND SHIFT AND SHOULD MOVE W TO ALONG 55W TUE NIGHT AND INTO E CARIBBEAN WED REACHING ALONG 75W FRI NIGHT. TROPICAL LOW PRES NEAR 13N30W IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ELY SHEAR. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AT 15-20 KT REACHING NEAR 55W SUNSET THU...AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI NIGHT. THIS LOW PRES HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. I HAVE TONED DOWN ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON GRAPHICS UNTIL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS CONFIRMED. SW N ATLC...A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER EXTREME NW ATLC WATERS ATTM EXPECTED TO MOVE SE REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NW BAHAMAS SUNRISE TUE AND STALL FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUNRISE WED...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WHILE DRIFTING W THROUGH NORTHERN BAHAMAS THU AND FRI. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE E OF THE TROUGH ALONG 28N WHILE ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD SW OVER THE NW WATERS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WED AND THU. BY FRI...THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS FROM BERMUDA TO NE FL. DEPENDING ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL LOW PRES MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GRADIENT COULD INCREASE SUPPORTING ELY 20-25 KT OVER THE WATERS S OF 24N E OF 70W FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON