000 AGXX40 KNHC 121551 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1200 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER GULF WATERS TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES 1017 MB OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SHIP...BUOY...AND SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY BARELY SHOW ANYTHING ABOVE 10 KT ACROSS THE GULF. THE DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT REMAINS A COLD CORE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE SW FLORIDA COAST. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN INCREASED CONVECTION...TO INCLUDE INCREASED LIGHTNING...OVER THE SE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE MON...THAT WILL TRACK W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF DURING THE SAME PERIOD. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... TROP WAVE ALONG 87W MOVING ONSHORE OVER BELIZE AND YUCATAN. FURTHER E...ANOTHER TROP WAVE NEAR 77W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. FRESH ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO ATLC RIDGE NOSING IN BEHIND THE WAVES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH STARTING MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. MEANWHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE TROUGHS...ENHANCED FROM FAVORABLY DIVERGENT SW UPPER FLOW...ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED E OF PUERTO RICO WITH STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MORNING SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH ELY FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS N OF 12N. THIS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 45W...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESS OF A 1008 LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 12N24W. IT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU AND FRI AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SW N ATLC... ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 28N. FRESH SELY FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT IMAGERY THIS MORNING TO THE S OF RIDGE...E OF THE BAHAMAS. TO THE N...A DEEPENING TROUGH IS MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE E COAST. CURRENT TRENDS POINT TO THIS TROUGH DEEPENING SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN INCREASED SW WINDS AND SEAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL MAJOR MODELS SHOW THIS SOLUTION THROUGH TUE WITH THE RIDGE BEING PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER S TO AROUND 24N. WED WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER DOMINANCE OF THE RIDGE. THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH THE MAIN FEATURE BEING THE AFOREMENTIONED 1008 MB LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR 12N24W FORMING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND APPROACHING THE AREA THU AND FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN