000
AGXX40 KNHC 120600
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A QUIET PATTERN WITH 5 TO 10 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL 
CONTINUE A COUPLE MORE DAYS. WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG 27N 
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN FLORIDA INCREASES
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN ERN GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS NO LONGER 
INDICATE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT FORMATION OF A 
SFC TROUGH APPEARS MORE LIKELY. EXPECT LOW PRES TROUGH TO DEVELOP IN 
THE SW GULF TUE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF WINDS IN NW AND MIDDLE 
GULF ZONES TUE NIGHT AND WED.
 
ATLC RIDGE ALONG 28N/29N DOMINATES THE AREA. UPPER LOW NOTED BEFORE 
WILL TAP INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE FOR SW ATLC. MODERATE TRADES 
WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS S OF 25N. A TROUGH MOVING OFF SE 
U.S. REMAINING N OF AREA WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE S-SW WINDS N OF 25N.

TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 81W AND 71W MOVING W 10-15 KT. QUIKSCAT SHOWS 
20-25 KT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AROUND 70W. OTHER THAN THE 
TROUGH WHICH DEVELOPS NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE MON VERY LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN. BUT IN 
THE LONG TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A TROPICAL WAVE 
WITH A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 11N20W INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MOVING IT 
TO THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE NEAR 55W/56 BY LATE THU.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL