000
AGXX40 KNHC 111647
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE 
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A TRANQUIL PATTERN OF 5-10 KT WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WITH A RIDGE ALONG 27N. WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE 
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE LOW DEVELOPING IN 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK LOW INTO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE TUE AND WED THEN DISSIPATE IT ON THU. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH 
OF A GRADIENT FOR 15-20 KT WINDS MON NIGHT AND TUE...THEN DECREASE 
WED AND THU.
 
ATLC RIDGE ALONG 28N/29N DOMINATES THE AREA. MODERATE E/SE FLOW WILL 
PREVAIL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS S OF 25N AND S TO SW WINDS N OF 25N.
A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA SUN AND MON THEN MOVE ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA TUE AND 
WED THEN DISSIPATED THU.

A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 78W AND 69W AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH 
ALONG IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
QUIKSCAT CONTINUES TO SHOW ELY SURGE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS. A BROAD SFC LOW DEVELOPS E OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE MON WITH LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE LOW AND A 
CONTINUATION OF 15-20 KT ELY TRADES WELL E OF LOW IN THE E-CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A TROPICAL WAVE 
CURRENTLY MOVING OFF AFRICA INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MOVING IT TO 
THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE NEAR 55W/56 BY LATE THU.  

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS