000
AGXX40 KNHC 110615
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
TRANQUIL PATTERN OF 5-10 KT WINDS IN PLACE WITH A RIDGE ALONG 27N. 
WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A SFC LOW FROM NW CARIBBEAN 
INTO THE SRN GULF OR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED 
IN THE SRN MID GULF ZONE FCST LATE MON AND THE W GULF ZONES TUE AND 
WED AS THE LOW TRACKS NWWD. CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. 
 
SW N ATLC...
ATLC RIDGE ALONG 28N DOMINATES THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN 
ALONG 28N/29N. MODERATE TO FRESH E/SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN 
AND MON...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN 
BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST 
EARLY SUN WITH AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF 
THE TROUGH. ON MON AND TUE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF 
THE AREA WITH WINDS VEERING TO SWLY N OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROP N ATLC...
SMALL AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 76W AND 66W AND A SFC TROUGH 
ALONG 82W/83W N OF 14N. QUIKSCAT CONTINUES TO SHOW ELY SURGE IN THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS. A BROAD SFC 
LOW DEVELOPS E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE MON WITH LIGHT WINDS 
NEAR THE LOW AND A CONTINUATION OF 15-20 KT ELY TRADES WELL E OF LOW 
IN THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION 
TUE AND WED NORMAL ELY TRADE FLOW RESUMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
DEVELOPING A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OFF AFRICA INTO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE AND MOVING IT TO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 45W/50W BY LATE WED.  

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL