000 AGXX40 KNHC 101852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RATHER TRANQUIL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 27N. THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT INDICATED WINDS OF 5-10 KT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. WEAK RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUN/SUN NIGHT. CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING IN THE OUTLOOK AS NWP MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WHICH CARRIES A SFC LOW FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SRN GULF OR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM THE BENIGN UKMET WHICH TRACKS A WEAK LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE EXTREME SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED TO THE AGGRESSIVE NAM WHICH HAS A FULL FLEDGED TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER NE YUCATAN BY LATE MON. THE GFS/NOGAPS OFFER A COMPROMISE AND ACCEPTED SOLUTION WHICH TAKES A WEAKER SFC LOW FROM THE YUCATAN LATE MON INTO THE SRN GULF LATE TUE AND MOVES IT SLOWLY NWWD WED. WILL INCREASE WINDS IN THE SRN MID GULF ZONE LATE MON AND THE W GULF ZONES TUE AND WED AS LOW TRACKS NWWD. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE FCST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. SW N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE ALONG 28N DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND SWD TO CENTRAL CUBA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH SAT AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH E/SE FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN AND MON...AGAIN FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SAT AND SUN WITH AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ON MON AND TUE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA CARRYING SWLY WINDS N OF 28N. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS FCSTG 20 KT WINDS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE MODEST SOLUTION PROPOSED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLES. WEAK ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS WED ALONG 29N. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROP N ATLC... RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH A PLETHORA OF SMALL AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 86W...73W AND 63W AND A SFC TROUGH ALONG 80W N OF 14N. THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT INDICATED AN ELY SURGE OVER THE E-CENTRAL CARIB WITH 20 KT WINDS INDICATED. A SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF FEATURES INTO A BROAD SFC LOW E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED BY LATE MON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE BROAD LOW AND A CONTINUATION OF 15-20 KT ELY TRADES WELL E OF THE LOW OVER THE E-CENTRAL CARIB. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION TUE AND WED NORMAL ELY TRADE FLOW RESUMES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE EXITING AFRICA INTO A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MOVE IT TO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 48W BY LATE WED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB