000 AGXX40 KNHC 050537 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 137 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPED N OF THE AREA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS S OF CAPE FEAR AS EXPECTED...NOW LOCATED NEAR 32N77W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES OF 1013 MB. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE LOW TO NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AND WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY HAVE BEEN BASICALLY NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS TO 5 FT. THE LOW WILL MOVE SE 10 KT AND REACH 31N74W BY THIS EVENING WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE NRN BAHAMAS AND WINDS ON A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE MON NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH STICKING ALONG 76W THROUGH TUE...THEN ALSO DISSIPATING BY WED. AS THIS OCCURS...THE RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD WWD ALONG 30N TUE THROUGH THU. THE N PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE SE WATERS ON MON...REACHING 66W MON NIGHT... 68W TUE...71W WED...AND 75W THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN IS LOCATED NEAR 87W AND CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WRN HONDURAS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ALTHOUGH IN REALITY WINDS HAVE LARGELY BEEN DICTATED BY THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BUOY 42056 HAS BEEN REPORTING A WIDE RANGE OF WIND SPEEDS...AT ONE POINT REPORTING A MAXIMUM 1-MIN WIND OF 29 KT AROUND 0300 UTC. WITH THE WAVE NOW MOVING INLAND...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY YET PROBABLY REMAIN 15-20 KT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WINDS ARE ON THEIR WAY DOWN AS WELL AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 KT BY MON. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM NE VENEZUELA NE TO 22N60W...THE N PART BEING SLOWED DOWN BY AN UPPER LOW IN THAT AREA. THE NRN SEGMENT WILL BREAK OFF TODAY WITH THE SRN PART CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO EFFECTS TO WINDS/SEAS. A THIRD AND STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE WED WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT BEHIND THE AXIS ON THU. GULF OF MEXICO... THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO REACH 91W THIS AFTERNOON...94W TONIGHT...THEN 97W ON MON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AFTER THE WAVE AXIS PASSES BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT S OF 21N OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NWW3 APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT OR SO S OF 21N. ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N/28N WITH HIGH PRES NEAR 86W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE LOUISIANA COAST ON WED. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HINTS AT A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE SE U.S. ON THU BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON THE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 29N. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG