000 AGXX40 KNHC 040530 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED N OVER THE PAST 24 HRS TO 27N/28N...STILL A FEW DEGREES FARTHER S THAN IT SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAD BEEN OVER THE NW PART THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED N TO THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST... AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF WEAK CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR NOW...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING WINDS TO 20 KT PRIMARILY S OF THE SRN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUN AS THE CARIBBEAN GRADIENT WEAKENS. REGARDING THE LOW DEVELOPMENT...THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE SINCE LAST NIGHT IN SHOWING A WEAK FRONTAL LOW MOVING E OF SOUTH CAROLINA SAT THROUGH SUN...THEN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM 31N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SUN NIGHT AND MON. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ALSO DRIFT THE LOW SWD INTO THE AREA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WAY TOO WEAK TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS. THE LEFTOVER TROUGH THEN MOVES E TOWARDS FLORIDA AND WEAKENS ON TUE. ELSEWHERE...THE N PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 53W WILL MOVE INTO THE SE PART OF THE ZONE ON MON...MOVING TO 70W ON TUE AND 73W ON WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 82W AND POISED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS THIS MORNING THEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL NO INDICATION THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED. WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE ARE STILL IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AS FAR E AS 70W AND SHOULD HOLD UP FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY MON. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 53W AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT BEHIND THE WAVE OVER THE NE PART OF THE ZONE ON SUN THEN WEAKEN ON TUE. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE N GULF COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING BETWEEN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND TEXAS. THE RIDGE IS NOW ALONG 26N AND WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BOTH DIMINISHED. NOW THAT THE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED N...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 KT OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-5 FT. HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN MIDDLE GULF SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND WILL SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCE A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ERN GULF. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCENTUATED BY A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARDS FLORIDA ON TUE FROM THE ATLC WATERS. THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG THE N GULF COAST ON WED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG