000
AGXX40 KNHC 031732
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
THE ATLC RIDGE IS SHIFTING N TO A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION  
ALONG 27N. A STATIONARY FRONT IS N OF THE AREA ALONG 33N. WINDS 
ARE 15-20 KT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 23N DUE TO 
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NEAR JAMAICA. THESE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING 
NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL. ON SAT...LOW 
PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 
THE CAROLINA COAST AND SHIFT E TO 32N71W ON SUN ACCORDING TO THE 
GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS ENSEMBLE MEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SW 
OF THE LOW FROM 31N71W TO 27N75W SUN AND MON THEN WEAKEN ON TUE 
AS IT DRIFTS W TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS...POSSIBLY MERGING WITH THE 
NRN PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE GFS IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME 
WITH THIS PATTERN...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH ENSEMBLE INSTEAD.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NEAR JAMAICA CONTINUES TO LOSE CONVECTIVE 
ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY WESTWARD IN THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 25-30 KT BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS
THIS MORNING. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE MAINLY N OF 15N IN THE CNTRL
CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT. THE WAVE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY 
AFTER TONIGHT AND WINDS EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BY MON AND TUE. CONVERSELY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT OVER THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC 
WATERS SUN THROUGH TUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN AMPLIFIED TROPICAL 
WAVE AND THE BUILDING ATLC RIDGE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN OLD SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE NE GULF COAST. HIGHEST 
WINDS HAVE BEEN NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS TO 4-5 FT NW OF TAMPA BAY. 
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY 
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT OVER THE N PART OF THE 
MIDDLE GULF UNTIL SAT...WHEN THE RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG 
27N. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES S 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THE 
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES DEVELOPING NEAR THE 
MISSISSIPPI DELTA SUN THROUGH TUE.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL