000 AGXX40 KNHC 030558 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 158 AM EDT FRI AUG 03 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE ATLC RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A SHIFT N TO ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION...NOW ALONG 27N ACCORDING TO THE EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LIES OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE ZONE FROM 31N78W INTO N FLORIDA BUT WILL CONTINUE MOVING N THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-20 KT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 23N DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE S OF HISPANIOLA...AND THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS HAVE ALREADY BUILT TO 8 FT IN THIS ZONE ACCORDING TO BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO. ON SAT...LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST AND SHIFT E TO 32N71W ON SUN ACCORDING TO THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS ENSEMBLE MEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SW OF THE LOW FROM 31N71W TO 27N75W SUN AND MON THEN WEAKEN ON TUE AS IT DRIFTS W TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS...POSSIBLY MERGING WITH THE NRN PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME KEYING IN ON ONE SPECIFIC FEATURE WITHIN THIS PATTERN...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE GUN ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR CONSISTENCY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT DAY AIR FORCE RECON FLEW INTO THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND WAS UNABLE TO CLOSE OFF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION IS AT A MINIMUM FOR THE TIME BEING AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SYSTEM'S CHANCES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT HAVE DIMINISHED. WILL THEREFORE REMOVE ALL REMAINING MENTION OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE FCST. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS STILL QUITE FORMIDABLE AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 25-30 KT ACCORDING TO A 2259 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. BUOY 42059 S OF PUERTO RICO HAD SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT 27 KT WITH GUSTS TO 33 KT DURING THE EVENING HRS AS THE WAVE PASSED BY...AND SEAS AT ONE POINT WERE ABLE TO BUILD TO 12 FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY N OF 15N TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND 75W FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EARLY PART OF TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT IN SPOTS. THE WAVE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AFTER TONIGHT AND WINDS EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BY MON AND TUE. CONVERSELY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT OVER THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN THROUGH TUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN AMPLIFIED TROPICAL WAVE AND THE BUILDING ATLC RIDGE. GULF OF MEXICO... THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE FAR NE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA THEN NW TO NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS. HIGHEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SE OF THE LOW AND HAVE BEEN NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 5 FT JUST W OF TAMPA BAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY N TODAY AND BE ENTIRELY N OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AS HIGH AS 15 KT OVER THE N PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF UNTIL SAT WHEN THE RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG 27N. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE BRUSHES BY TO THE S...AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO 3-5 FT. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES DEVELOPING NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA SUN THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG