000
AGXX40 KNHC 021747
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE 
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.
A BUOY LOCATED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO IS REPORTING A WIND SHIFT 
FROM THE NE TO THE E 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. ALTHOUGH 
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS 
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE 
WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT. SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE 
THAT THE WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 64W FROM 6N TO 19N. AN EARLIER 
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN N OF 12N...AND HIGHER GUSTS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITHIN 
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAINS A 
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
YET. EVEN AS AN OPEN WAVE...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN 
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING THIS 
EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT S OF 
HISPANIOLA AND LASTING THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO 13 FT SOUTH OF HAITI/JAMAICA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
STEADILY DIMINISH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND 
SUCH THAT BY MON THERE IS BARELY 20 KT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS 
COULD INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC 
WATERS SUN AND MON AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND A PASSING 
TROPICAL WAVE. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA WILL 
MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE FRI AND SAT THEN THE E 
CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON.

SW N ATLC...
THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 26N. THE RIDGE 
WILL BE ALONG 27N SAT THEN ALONG 28N SUN AND MON. A SFC TROUGH 
STRETCHES FROM 31N79W TO N FLORIDA AND WILL BE N OF AREA 
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF 
THE RIDGE NEAR HISPANIOLA AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. 
A LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST 
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BUT WILL REMAIN N OF AREA. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT 
EXTENDS MAINLY WWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS FROM A 1012 
MB SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N86W. BUOY/SHIPS OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 
SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 7 FT WITHIN 50 NM SE OF THE 
LOW CENTER. CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT 
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS 
THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE CIRCULATION IS QUITE BROAD AND 
ELONGATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N AND E OF 
90W. THE LOW AND TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT N ON FRI AS 
THE ATLC RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND BUILDS ALONG 26N/27N. 
THE RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 27N SAT THEN ALONG 28N SUN AND MON WITH 
HIGH PRES DEVELOPING NEAR SE LOUISIANA.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER GR