000 AGXX40 KNHC 020532 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 132 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... REGARDING THE AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN...LATEST INFO FROM HURRICANE UNIT PUTS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 12.5N60W MOVING WNW 15-20 KT AS OF 00Z. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE COULD NOT CLOSE OFF A CENTER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH BASED ON SURFACE PRESSURES FROM THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS THERE AT LEAST APPEARS TO BE A PRES MINIMUM...SOMEWHERE NEAR GRENADA. SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A TROUGH/WAVE AXIS EXTENDS NNE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 16N60W...EVEN THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ABOUT 150 NM W OF ST. VINCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 55W-67W AND HIGHER GUSTS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS YET THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THE SYSTEM BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED. EVEN AS AN OPEN WAVE...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT S OF HISPANIOLA AND LASTING THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY DIMINISH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND SUCH THAT BY MON THERE IS BARELY 20 KT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN AND MON AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE. SW N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE SINCE LAST NIGHT ALTHOUGH WILL BEGIN ITS NWD SHIFT TODAY AND BECOME PARKED ALONG 27N BY FRI. A STALLED OUT AND WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM 31N75W TO N/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND IT TOO IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N TODAY...N OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR HISPANIOLA AS THE CARIBBEAN LOW MOVES BY TO THE S...EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SAT. FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW DUE TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS SO WILL RELY ON A GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS. IN THIS SCENARIO...LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BUT REMAINS N OF 31N THROUGH SUN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP S OF THE LOW ON SAT AND EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM 31N70W TO 26N75W ON SUN WITH THE ATLC RIDGE SHUNTED TO THE E. THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN ON MON. GULF OF MEXICO... AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM N/CENTRAL FLORIDA NW INTO SRN LOUISIANA WITH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AND THE CIRCULATION IS QUITE BROAD AND ELONGATED...SO ANY DEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT IS UNLIKELY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE SW 15 KT OVER THE N PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF ZONE TODAY THROUGH FRI DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT N ON FRI AS THE ATLC RIDGE BRIDGES ACROSS FLORIDA AND BUILDS ALONG 26N/27N. THE RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 27N SAT AND SUN THEN ALONG 28N MON WITH HIGH PRES DEVELOPING NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG