000
AGXX40 KNHC 011735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
ATLC MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 29N66W EXTENDS SW TO 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA EFFECTIVELY DRYING OUT MOST OF BASIN ON THE 
SE SIDE OF AXIS.  LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING 
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS BLOCKED FROM 
FURTHER INTRUSION INTO BASIN BY AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.  FRONT 
STALLS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE BY FRI.  RIDGE DRIFTS N AS TROUGH 
YIELDS NRN LATITUDES TO IT.  

SECOND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THIS ONE OVER SE TEXAS...HELPS 
TROUGH ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT INTO GULF OF MEXICO AND 
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED AT THE TAIL END OF 
COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA.  OTHERWISE...GULF SEEMS UNIMPRESSIVE 
ON WINDS OR SEAS.  

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
MAIN FEATURE OF THE DAY IS LOW PRES CENTER TRYING TO FORM NEAR 
12N56W.  WEATHER RECON AIRCRAFT SURVEYING AREA THIS AFTERNOON 
FOR SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF 
POSSIBLE FORMATION NEGATES MUCH CHANCE OF CREDIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
VERY DRY AIR MASS AND STRONG ADVERSE WINDS ALOFT MAIN ENEMIES OF 
SYSTEM.  GLOBAL MODELS BASICALLY IGNORE ITS EXISTENCE IN 48 HRS. 
STILL...ITS PATH ACROSS ERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD COUNT OF ABOVE 
NORMAL E-NE WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS THAN NORMAL...MOSTLY THU AND 
FRI.  

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES