000 AGXX40 KNHC 010704 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 304 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS SUPPRESSED S OF ITS CLIMOTOLOGICAL POSITION ALONG A LINE FROM 27N65W TO WRN CUBA DUE TO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAS SAGGED INTO THE AREA EXTENDING FROM A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES E OF CAPE HATTERAS SW FROM 31N76W TO NEAR GAINESVILLE FLORIDA. EVENING QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES SOMEWHAT MISSED THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND FIELD OVER THE AREA BUT THE EDGES INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE SW 20-25 KT N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY THEN DIE DOWN BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. SOME CHANGES TO THE PATTERN BEGIN EARLY THU AS THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT N TO 26N THU...27N FRI AND SAT...THEN FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUN. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR SRN PORTION S OF 23N BEGINNING ON THU AS LOW PRES TRACKS WWD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE AREA OF LOW PRES E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AT 00Z THE LOW WAS PLACED NEAR 11N53W WITH A PRES OF 1009 MB AND JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE NOAA AND FRENCH BUOY OBS N OF THE LOW HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HRS AND SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8 FT. THE LOW ACTUALLY APPEARS LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT STILL EXISTS FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...ITS PROSPECTS ARE DIMINISHING WITH NO GLOBAL MODEL KEEPING A CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES CHAIN. EVEN AS AN OPEN WAVE...GFS AND HWRF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE AS HIGH AS 30 KT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY GETTING INTO THU NIGHT AND FRI. I AM PLANNING ON TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE MORNING FCST PACKAGE BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE TO GAGE THE TIMING OF THE INCREASE. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED S OVER THE FAR NE WATERS OF THE GULF WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SUPPRESSED FROM WRN CUBA TO THE S TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 15 KT JUST S OF THE LOW/FRONT. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND THU NIGHT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE N TO 25N FRI...26N SAT...AND 27N SUN. THIS MAY SLIGHTLY INCREASE RETURN FLOW INTO THE TX COAST BY THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG