000 AGXX40 KNHC 310525 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... LOW-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 27N65W SW TO THE WRN BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH BROAD SWLY FLOW LYING BETWEEN IT AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TODAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH FOR SW WINDS TO BE AROUND 20 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE ZONE...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH WED EVENING. ALSO...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIE OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE ZONE NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY N TO 27N THU THROUGH SAT...PUSHING THE TROUGH N OF THE AREA BUT KEEPING WESTERLIES TO THE N AND EASTERLIES TO THE S. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK AND WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS TO 20 KT THU THROUGH SAT AS IT PASSES BY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A 1011 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 10N49W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. SINCE ABOUT 00 UTC THE LOW HAS DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. THIS TYPE OF WORDING WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FCST. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE WNW OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...CROSSING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT...ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH SAT. AT THIS POINT...ONLY THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN TRACK A CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS AT A MODERATE LEVEL UNTIL WE SEE MORE CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS...THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W WITH THE LOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTY 20-25 KT WINDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE LIES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NW INTO THE NW GULF WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NESTLED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE GULF AND HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT OVER THE NE PART DUE TO THE FRONT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT WITH GENERAL TROUGHING EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE GULF COAST...EVEN AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...AND THE RIDGE ONLY SLIGHTLY SHIFTING N TO 27N LATER IN THE WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG