000
AGXX40 KNHC 291809
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH CUTS DEEP INTO SW N ATLC FROM 
32N76W TO S FLORIDA AND WRN CUBA BRINGING COOL DRY AIR MASS OVER 
SE STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO.  ON E SIDE OF TROUGH LOW LEVEL 
TROUGH WITH AN APPARENT CIRCULATION HEADS NE OUT OF REGION.  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ALONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAVE 
DECREASED AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT BRUSHES NRN BORDER INCREASING  
W WINDS N OF 28N E OF 78W BY WED.  OTHERWISE BASIN REMAINS QUIET 
AND TRANQUIL.  

BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVER SE CONUS EXTENDING INTO GULF 
OF MEXICO.  CONVECTION OVER S CENTRAL GULF ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGE AND ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH REACHING WRN 
CUBA.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN GULF OF MEXICO UNTIL 
LATE IN OUTLOOK PERIOD WHEN SECOND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
INVADES SE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS KEEP 
GULF UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TILL WED WHEN WEAK LOW PRES 1012 
FORMS OVER NE CORNER NEAR FLORIDA BIG BEND.  12Z GFS RUN LESS 
AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTION AND INCREASES WINDS TO 15 KT 
ONLY TUE NIGHT AND WED.  WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH BY THU.  

CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES 1023 MB EXPANDS W TIGHTENING PRES 
GRADIENT WITH LOW PRES 1012 MB OVER COLOMBIA.  STRONG WINDS ON 
SRN HALF OF BASIN REMAIN THROUGH ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN CHANCE OF ABATEMENT WITHIN FORECAST PERIOD.  

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES