000
AGXX40 KNHC 290502
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE PICTURE TONIGHT ALONG 75W EXTENDING S TO 
NRN BAHAMAS. WEAK JETS SPLIT IN TROUGH WITH ONE HEADING E OVER NE 
CONUS AND THE OTHER HEADING S INTO BASE OF TROUGH. THUS WEAK 
IMPULSES MIGRATING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH OVER ATLC WATERS SETTING 
OFF WEAK DISTURBANCES N OF 24N AND W OF 60W. OTHERWISE LARGE MID 
LEVEL RIDGE OVER MID ATLC ALONG 50W BLOCKING MOVEMENT OF UPPER 
TROUGH. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT TROPICS STILL QUIET WITH WEAK TRPL 
WAVES ALONG 38W..58W AND 88W. HIGH LEVEL WINDS EITHER TOO STRONG OR 
ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY THUS WAVES DON'T WANT TO DEVELOP. ATLC RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N53W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 
20N70W AND WNW TO CENTRAL GULF. GULF WINDS LIGHT. CARIB WINDS 20 TO 
25 IN CENTRAL PORTION AND ATLC TRADES 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT.

LATER DAY 1 WITH JETS SPLIT IN UPPER TROUGH..THE WHOLE SYSTEM STARTS 
TO WEAKEN AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE S OF 30N. OTHERWISE 
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL PATTERN IN MID LEVELS. ON THE SURFACE LATER 
DAY 1 ATLC RIDGE CONFIGURATION REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME ALTHOUGH 1023 
MB HIGH CENTER SHIFTS NW TO 33N53W. GFS MODEL WANTS TO DEVELOP WEAK 
LOW ON TRPL WAVE NEAR 10N41W SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS 
AND PATTERN ABOUT THE SAME. 

FOR DAY 2 ENTIRE WRN HEMISPHERE PATTERN SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. 
MID ATLC RIDGE WHILE STILL IN PLACE HAS LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS 
ALONG SRN SIDE. UPPER TROUGH OFF E COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT 
NE. MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 MODEL 
STILL SHOWS WEAK TRPL LOW NEAR 10N44W. ATLC RIDGE ABOUT THE SAME AND 
WINDS OVER THE REGION CHANGE LITTLE.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER PLAINS DRIFTS E TO 93W WHILE UPPER 
TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER SE CONUS. BLOCKING RIDGE OVER MID ATLC SHIFTS 
E TO ALONG 38W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 MODEL STILL HAS WEAK TRPL LOW 
NEAR 11N46W WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WSW ACROSS 
NRN BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL GULF WITH WEAK LOW PRES OFF SE COAST..THUS 
SW WINDS INCREASE OVER ATLC N OF 27N W OF 65W TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS 
RELAX SOME TO 15 TO 20 KT WHILE NE TRADES OVER ATLC INCREASE E OF 
45W.

FOR DAY 4..FIRST DAY OF AUGUST..UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTING NE AS 
WESTERLIES STRENGTHEN OVER NRN CONUS AND RIDGE OVER PLAINS BREAKS 
DOWN. MODERATE SHORTWAVE SLIPS INTO PLAINS RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARD NW 
GULF. BLOCKING RIDGE OVER ERN ATLC HOLDS FIRM ALONG 35W. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 4 TRPL LOW NEAR 12N47W WEAKENS. ATLC RIDGE SHOWS NEW 
LIFT CENTERED UNDER E ATLC RIDGE CENTER. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WSW 
TO FL STRAITS AND S CENTRAL GULF. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS 
INCREASE OVER NE CARIB TO 25 KT WHERE RIDGE NOSES IN AGAINST LOW 
PRES OVER NRN COLOMBIA. 

FOR DAY 5 WITH DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROUGH AWAY FROM ERN CONUS..MID 
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WWD ALONG 27N. MODERATE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN 
RIDGE OVER SRN PLAINS BREAKS OUT AND DRIFTS E TO L0WER MS VALLEY. ON 
THE SURFACE DAY 5 WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER NE GULF PROBABLY IN 
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING TO MS VALLEY. ATLC RIDGE ABOUT THE SAME 
BUT WEAKENS OVER GULF. LITTLE CHANGE TO WINDS OVER REGION. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG