000 AGXX40 KNHC 170715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND MOVE LITTLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO STARTS OUT COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS LATE AS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO...PUSHING THE TROUGH NORTHWARD AND CONFINING THE TROUGH TO COVER JUST TEXAS...UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. THE TROUGH IN TEXAS PRETTY MUCH DISAPPEARS EARLY ON THURSDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY WESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS CYCLONE REMAINS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AFTER THE 31N60W-TO-WINDWARD PASSAGE-TO SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND THE CYCLONIC CENTER MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL STAY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE AREA FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W...EVENTUALLY REMAINING IN THE AREA BUT SHIFTING A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL FORM NEAR 24N42W AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SPEND THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO MOVING WESTWARD TO 24N48W. THIS CYCLONE THEN WILL MOVE TO 25N53W AFTER ANOTHER 24 HOURS...TO 25N56W...AND FINALLY TO 28N58W BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON SATURDAY. SURFACE... RIDGE WILL COVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WINDS IN THE GULF ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE AREA WILL BE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED AND OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER MT