000
AGXX40 KNHC 160603
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...E TO W RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS WILL SET UP 
A RETURN FLOW TROUGH ALONG TX COAST MID WEEK. SE WINDS IN 15 KT 
RANGE SW WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL 20 KT. SEAS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 
6 FT NEAR 23N95W WHILE NEARLY CALM SEAS EXPECTED NE WATERS 
THROUGH PERIOD.
   
SW ATLC...RIDGE FROM CENTRAL ATLC TO GA/FL COAST. MODELS 
SUGGESTING N TO S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL PROPAGATE 
THROUGH THE ELY FLOW S OF THE RIDGE. EVIDENCE OF THE FIRST SUCH 
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE N TO NEAR 
28N73W.  THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH IS DEFINED BY LINE OF 
MOSTLY TOWERING CUMULUS...BUT LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES A FEW 
CELLS ARE TSTMS. SSMI DATA AND A LATE AFTERNOON QSCAT PASS 
INDICATE ELY FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT TO THE E OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. ADDITIONALLY TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 62W AND 66W IS 
INCREASING ELY FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE N OF 15N. 
ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED N OF 20N ALONG 65W WED AND 
WILL MOVE W TO THE BAHAMAS THU NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. 

CARIBBEAN...ELY TRADES AT 15-20 KT OVER WATERS S OF 16N W OF 
68W...EXCEPT 25 NEAR COLOMBIAN COAST. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
TO 15-20 KT THU AND FRI.
 
WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON