000 AGXX40 KNHC 150546 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 146 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE ATLC SFC RIDGE HAS BEGUN ITS SLOW SHIFT TO THE N AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA PER THE LATEST 2248Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE THIS PROGRESSION AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG 31N BY MON AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. WINDS ON THE WHOLE REMAIN LIGHT...AND WILL BECOME E/SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO 31N. A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 67W N OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO A SHEARED MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 23N64W...AND QUIKSCAT INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE POTENTIALLY REACHING 20 KT UP TO 360 NM E OF THE AXIS. BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO HAS REPORTED 1-MIN WINDS UP TO 19 KT IN THE PAST FEW HRS WITH SEAS NOW TO 6 FT. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING W REACHING THE ERN BAHAMAS ON MON THEN FLORIDA ON TUE...AND IT IS THEREFORE EXPECTED THAT WINDS COULD REACH 20 KT IN A NARROW ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH THE W ATLC RIDGE SHIFTING N...THE AREA OF STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 20 KT TODAY THROUGH MON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PROBABLY STILL TO 25 KT JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE WINDS TEND TO BE HIGHEST. BEGINNING MON NIGHT...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDING IN...AND WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THROUGH WED. POTENTIAL TROUGHING OVER THE W ATLC ON THU WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE ATLC RIDGE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIE DOWN AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. REGARDING THE TROPICAL WAVE...SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ITS CURRENT PSN TILTING FROM JUST W OF TRINIDAD NE TO 19N56W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WINDS E OF THE ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY 10-15 KT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER TODAY AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. GULF OF MEXICO... CLOSED HIGH PRES APPEARS TO HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH THE ATLC RIDGE NOW EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE NW GULF. WINDS ARE THEREFORE LIGHT EXCEPT JUST OFF THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST N OF 23N WHERE THEY ARE NEAR 15 KT IN SLY FLOW DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING INLAND OVER TEXAS. THE RIDGE SHIFTS N TO THE N GULF COAST MON THROUGH THU AND SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG