000 AGXX40 KNHC 140550 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... CLIMATOLOGY IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL WITH THE W ATLC RIDGE IN THE EXACT PSN AND EXACT STRENGTH AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR JULY. A 2314Z QUIKSCAT PASS PLACES THE RIDGE AXIS FROM 31N60W SW TO S/CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH WINDS NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 15 KT OFF HISPANIOLA AND OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SWING NWD ON SUN SUCH THAT IT LIES ALONG 31N MON THROUGH WED WITH WINDS BECOMING E/SE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE TRADES ARE STILL BLOWING RATHER HARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED A BIT WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS JUST UNDER 30 KT IN A VERY SMALL AREA ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WHEN THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO ROTATE A LITTLE FARTHER N OVER THE WEEKEND THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER AND SHOULD REACH THEIR WEAKEST POINT ON MON WITH 15-20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...A TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE AREA ALONG 50W WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATER TODAY AND SUN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE AREA TUE AND WED...JUST AFTER THE BRIEF RESPITE ON MON. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N92W WITH A PARTIALLY DISCONNECTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE HIGH BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE RIDGE LATER TODAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE AXIS THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY NWD ON SUN EVENTUALLY RESTING ALONG 30N TUE AND WED. A MID/UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CUT-OFF OVER SE TEXAS SUN THROUGH WED WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND...AND WILL THEREFORE ALLOW ONSHORE WINDS TO 15 KT JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST DURING THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF FROM ITS 20 KT FCST FROM LAST NIGHT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG