000
AGXX40 KNHC 130545
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
FIRST GLANCE AT THE PATTERN MAKES IT LOOK LIKE A NEAR REPEAT OF 
LAST NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N60W SW TO S 
FLORIDA. WINDS ARE THEREFORE STILL RATHER LIGHT EXCEPT FOR A 
NARROW SWATH TO 20 KT S OF 22N OFF THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE 
RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT N ON SAT AND THEN STAYS ROUGHLY ALONG 30N 
THROUGH TUE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO RELAX THE GRADIENT A BIT AND 
USHER IN E/SE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
THE ATLC RIDGE HAS NOT YET MOVED THUS THE CARIBBEAN TRADES 
REMAIN IN THE FRESH TO STRONG CATEGORY. THE EVENING QUIKSCAT 
PASSES JUST MISSED THE ZONE OF HIGHEST WINDS ALTHOUGH THE EDGE 
OF THE WRN MOST PASS DOES INDICATE THAT WINDS COULD STILL BE UP 
TO ABOUT 30 KT...ALSO CONFIRMED BY SHIP A8IY9. IN GENERAL WINDS 
SHOULD BE COMING DOWN JUST A BIT INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE FOR 
MOST OF THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED 
TO STILL SEE A FEW REPORTS OF 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA TODAY AND 
TONIGHT. AS THE ATLC RIDGE LIFTS N THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ESPECIALLY 
SUN AND MON. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 45W WILL MOVE INTO THE E 
CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND THIS COULD INCREASE WINDS AGAIN ACROSS THE 
AREA ON TUE. 

E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WINDS ARE FALLING INTO THE 10-15 KT 
RANGE AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL BELOW 8 FT AS THE ELY 
SWELLS SUBSIDE. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO 
THE AREA LATE SAT AND WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 15-20 KT SUN 
THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA. DUE TO 
DIURNAL FORCING WINDS ARE PROBABLY UP TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR SW 
GULF BUT THE REST OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LIGHT WIND REGIME. THE 
RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 25N TODAY THROUGH 
SUN...THEN LIFTS N TO THE N GULF COAST MON AND TUE. WINDS ARE 
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH 
THEY COULD INCREASE A BIT OVER THE W GULF MON AND TUE AS 
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW AT THE 
MOMENT SINCE IT IS NOT BEING SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 
WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY HOW STRONG LOW PRES WILL BE OVER NRN 
MEXICO/SRN TEXAS.
 
WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER BERG