000
AGXX40 KNHC 121815
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST MODELS SHOW 
THE HIGH NEAR 34N48W SHIFTING VERY LITTLE FROM ITS PRESENT POSITION. 
AS A RESULT WINDS AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY 
OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
ROUGHLY FROM 31N60W TO SE FLORIDA THROUGH SAT...THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY 
NORTH SAT THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE. QUIKSCAT THIS MORNING SHOWED 25 TO 
30 KT WINDS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. A SIGNIFICANT SWATH 
OF 20-25 KT ELYS CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM 11N TO 18N E OF 82W WITH 
SEAS UP TO 12 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. WITH THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING 
IN PLACE AND THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE...WINDY CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUN...POSSIBLY DIMINISHING 
A BIT ON MON WITH THE RIDGE LIFTING N. WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KT E OF 
THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 8 FT. WEAK TROPICAL 
WAVES ARE ANALYZED ALONG 68W AND 80W WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXCEPT 
NEAR THE E COAST OF PANAMA AND NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 38W 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE SAT AND 
LIKELY INCREASE WINDS SUN AND MON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N92W. LIGHT 
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT A SMALL PORTION OF 
THE SW GULF WHERE THEY ARE 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE GENERALLY LOW. W GULF 
BUOYS 42002 42020 AND 42055 ARE REPORTING SEAS 3 TO 4 FT...PROBABLY 
FROM CARIBBEAN SWELLS MAKING IT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE 
PATTERN WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES IN 
PLACE. THE RIDGE RETREATS A BIT TO THE E SUN AND MON...WHICH COULD 
INCREASE WINDS A BIT OVER THE W GULF.
 
WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL