000
AGXX40 KNHC 100514
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
114 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
A 2318Z QUIKSCAT PASS NICELY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NOW IN 
PLACE ALONG 28N WITH ELY WINDS REACHING 20 KT ON ITS PERIPHERY 
BETWEEN THE SRN BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES. NO CHANGES ARE 
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. 
SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT IN ELY SWELL E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND 
FALL OFF TO 2-4 FT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
STRONG ATLC RIDGE COUPLED WITH LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA HAVE 
PRODUCED A WINDY REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND 
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WINDIER OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE EVENING 
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS 20-25 KT BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 
HISPANIOLA BUT EXPECT MAXIMUM WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KT BY 
SUNRISE ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS 30M WINDS OCCASIONALLY 
SHOW WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST 
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING BUT THE INSTABILITY 
DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX THESE WINDS CONSISTENTLY TO 
THE SFC...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. 
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO MENTION E WINDS 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER 
GUSTS IN STRONGEST WIND ZONE...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT BY 
TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY WEAKER TRADES WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE E 
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

GULF OF MEXICO...
ATLC RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA RESTING ALONG 29N TO 
THE TEXAS COAST. LIKE THE W ATLC WATERS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE FCST PERIOD...PERHAPS DRIFTING S 
TO 26N/27N BY SAT. STRONGEST WINDS OF 15 KT WILL BE OVER THE SW 
AND FAR WRN GULF DECREASING TO NEAR 5 KT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER BERG