000 AGXX40 KNHC 071743 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 143 PM EDT SAT JUL 07 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE AXIS IS BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE W ATLC ROUGHLY ALONG 28N AGAINST WEAK TROUGHING STILL LOCATED ACROSS N FLORIDA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS SPURRING A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 31N76W SW TO SE FLORIDA...WHICH WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE UNTIL THE DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE OF THE AREA LATE SUN. THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MODULATIONS TO ITS SURROUNDING GRADIENT DUE TO THE SWD PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES AND NWD PASSAGE OF MID-LATITUDE SYSTEMS. SPECIFICALLY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 24N GETTING INTO SUN NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THU AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. IN EARLIER FCSTS IT LOOKED AS THOUGH WINDS COULD ALSO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN SWLY FLOW OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE ZONE ALTHOUGH NOW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HELD BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY KEEPING THE 20 KT WINDS FROM 31N NWD. WILL TONE DOWN THE FCST A BIT IN THAT AREA TO REFLECT CHANGES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WITH SEAS RUNNING AS HIGH AS 14 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUN WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT SPREADS OUT...DECREASING WINDS SLIGHTLY OFF COLOMBIA BUT INCREASING WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WITH SUCH A LONG FETCH OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MON...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE HAZARDOUS BOTH E AND W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BUILDING TO 12 FT IN E SWELL OVER THE ATLC WATERS AND 14 FT IN E SWELL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE GRADIENT EVEN EXPANDS ENOUGH TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. GULF OF MEXICO... TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE GULF THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF WILL MERGE WITH THE ATLC RIDGE DURING THE DAY SUN....THEN SIT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 28N THROUGH THU. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND E/SE 10-15 KT OVER THE S PART OF THE GULF. SEAS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 OR 5 FT THE ENTIRE FCST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG