000
AGXX40 KNHC 060615
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0130 AM EDT FRI JUL 06 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE FL W COAST NEAR 
28N83W.  IT HAS PERSISTED LONGER THAT EXPECTED BUT WILL WEAKEN 
TODAY TO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER N FLORIDA AND PRODUCE AFTERNOON 
CONVECTION.  A 1019 MB HIGH IS JUST INLAND OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 
31N88W.  WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS HIGH 
SHOULD MOVE S TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND PRODUCE FAIR 
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER 
THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN ATLC 
RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS FL OVER THE WEEKEND.  ON MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE 
SW AND W CENTRAL WATERS.  
 
SW ATLC...THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE SW ATLC 
ALONG 31N53W 30N65W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT.  A SEPARATE RESIDUAL AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 74W-80W DRIFTING 
N.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY.  ALSO EXPECT 
CONVECTION OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS W AND ANCHORS ALONG 27N-28N.  
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THEREAFTER THROUGH TUESDAY.    

TROPICAL ATLC ZONE...E TO SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT ARE OVER THE 
WATERS N OF 18N WITH SEAS IN 4-6 FT RANGE IN E SWELL.  S OF 
18N...ELY TRADES 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL 
MON WHEN WINDS N OF 16N ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.  WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS NEAR 11N51W 
MOVING W AT 10 KT.  IT HAS LITTLE CONVECTION AND IS MOVING INTO 
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. 

CARIBBEAN...NE-E TRADES AT 25-30 KT ARE S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 
80W CONFIRMED BY SHIPS AND Q-SCAT.  SEAS IN THE SAME AREA ARE IN 
THE 9-13 FT RANGE.  ELY FLOW OF 20-25 KT ARE ACROSS ENTIRE 
WATERS ELSEWHERE S OF 18N WITH ELY 10-15 KT OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN WATERS.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION MOVING W AT 15 KT.  WINDS WILL 
DIMINISHING OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.   

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER FORMOSA