000
AGXX40 KNHC 051534
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG FL W COAST HAS PERSISTED 
LONGER THAT EXPECTED BUT WILL FILL IN TONIGHT TO AN OPEN TROUGH 
LYING N TO OVER INTERIOR FL LATE FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES STILL 
EVIDENT NEAR 28N88W...AND IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE N 
CENTRAL GULF WATERS EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH AN ATLC RIDGE THAT 
BUILD ACROSS FL OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TILL IN 
15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE SW AND W CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT THE 
GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT SUPPORTING ONLY 15 KT INTO SUN THEN 
TIGHTEN AGAIN WITH FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT THROUGH TUE.
 
SW ATLC...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS BREAKING DOWN INTO TWO 
SEGMENTS. THE PORTION E OF 65W LIES STATIONARY WITH A FRONTAL 
WAVE TRYING TO SPIN UP AT 29N66W. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT W OF 
75W IS DRIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT CONNECTED TO A WEAK LOW PRES 
OVER THE FL COAST NEAR 29N81W. EXPECT TO WARM FRONT TO MOVE N 
AND DISSIPATE ALONG 30-31N FRI AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS W AND 
ANCHORS ALONG 27-28N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY CONVECTION 
ALONG WARM FRONT UNTIL IT WASHES OUT FRI. LATEST ALTIMETER 
PASSES RIGHT ON THE MONEY WITH NWW3 SO WILL MAKE LITTLE 
ADJUSTMENT TO GUIDANCE. 

TROPICAL ATLC ZONE...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WINDS ARE OVER 
THE WATERS N OF 18N WITH SEAS IN 4-6 FT RANGE IN E SWELL. S OF 
18N...ELY TRADES 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL 
MON WHEN WINDS N OF 16N ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 11N48W HAS 
LITTLE CONVECTION AS IT SPINS INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 

CARIBBEAN...NE-E TRADES AT 25-30 KT ARE S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 
80W CONFIRMED BY SHIPS AND Q-SCAT. SEAS IN THE SAME AREA ARE IN 
THE 9-13 FT RANGE CONFIRMED BY SHIPS AND AN ALTIMETER PASS. ELY 
FLOW 20-25 KT ACROSS ENTIRE WATERS ELSEWHERE S OF 18N AND ELY 
10-15 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER 
THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W MOVING W AT 15 KT WITH CONVECTION 
FLARING E OF THE WAVE BUT ONLY TO THE S OF 12N. WIND FORECAST 
BASED ON GFS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVER W PART LATE IN THE 
WEEKEND AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.   

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON