000
AGXX40 KNHC 021626
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THE SW FL 
COAST STILL EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK. LOOKS LIKE ATLC RIDGE WILL OCCASIONALLY PUSH W THROUGH 
FL STRAITS ALONG 23-24N INTO EXTREME SE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRES 
CENTERED NEAR 27N87W WILL MEANDER IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA 
THROUGH SAT. THE N EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY 
ENTERING E BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MOVE W OF AREA AROUND SUNRISE 
TUE. SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF WAVE ACTUALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AT 
THE MOMENT. WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER SE AL EXPECTED TO MOVE 
ESE INTO ATLC WATERS NEAR 30N79W TUE AND DRAG REMNANTS OF A WEAK 
COLD FRONT...THAT MOVES INTO CENTRAL FL TONIGHT...BACK N OF AREA 
BUT TRAIL THE WEAK TROUGH...MENTIONED ABOVE...S ACROSS INTERIOR 
FL. LOW LEVEL ELY WINDS STILL EXPECTED IN 15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT 
20 KT DURING AFTERNOON...ALONG OUTSIDE PERIPHERY OF RIDGE 
THROUGH PERIOD. 
        
SW ATLC...CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
31N71W TO 24N80W...AND IS MOVING SE. A WEAK COLD FRONT...DEFINED 
BY A TOWERING CUMULUS LINE...IS ALONG 30N W OF THE TROUGH AND IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE SE AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS.  
THE MERGED FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO 
THE E OF BERMUDA TUE. THE W SEGMENT OF FRONT MAKES IT S TO ALONG 
27N BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER SE AL BEGINS TO LIFT NE AND 
DRAGS FRONT BACK N AGAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED. ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W 
ALONG 27N THU THROUGH SAT. NWW3 SEEMS OK THIS MORNING IN SW ATLC 
BASED ON 2 PARTIAL ALTIMETER PASSES LAST NIGHT.    
       
TROPICAL ATLC ZONE...E TO SE WINDS 10-15 KT N PART WITH SEAS IN 
4-6 FT RANGE AND NE-E WINDS 15 KT S OF 18N THROUGH WED. SLIGHT 
INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15 TO 20 KT THU...THEN GRADIENT RELAXES 
AGAIN FRI AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN SAT. WATCHING A LOW 
LATITUDE CYCLONIC SWIRL NEAR 7N35W.

CARIBBEAN...NE-E TRADES AT 25-30 KT S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 
78W. ELY FLOW IN 15-20 KT RANGE ELSEWHERE S OF 18N AND ELY 10-15 
KT OVER NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS E 
CARIBBEAN THU MORNING...NOT CONVECTIVE AT THE MOMENT. ONLY 
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND WAVE.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON