000
AGXX40 KNHC 020458
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY 
NOT BE MOVING ANY FURTHER S ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY. THE EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLIES CONTINUE 
TO MOVE SE AROUND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND BRUSH BY THE 
REGION N OF 25N W OF 60W. THE MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE IS CENTERED 
OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR 30N40W AND RIDGES WSW TO THE CENTRAL 
GULF. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 1030 MB HIGH ANCHORS THE ATLC 
RIDGE NEAR 33N40W RIDGING WSW TO CUBA AND THEN NW INTO THE GULF. 
TRPL WAVES ALONG 40W AND 87W REMAIN WEAK. 

LATER DAY 1 GFS MODEL SHOWING WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS ASSOCIATED 
WITH TRPL WAVES MOVING W ON THE S SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. 
OTHERWISE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT LEAVE WITHOUT SOME IMPACT ON OUR 
REGION..THUS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OVER ATLC WATERS TO 
NEAR 31N68W TO 28N78W. STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN OVER THE CARIB DUE 
TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND COLOMBIAN 
LOW..OTHERWISE ATLC TRADES LOOK NORMAL AT 15 TO 20 KT AND GULF 
WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. 

FOR DAY 2 STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPRESS THE 
WESTERLIES TO 30N PROVIDING SOME PUSH TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT 
OVER OUR AREA. SOME INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE OF A INVERTED TROUGH 
ALONG 35W AS VORTICITY INCREASES. MODEL BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON 
STRONGER TRPL WAVES AS THE SEASON CRANKS UP. PERSISTENT MID 
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER ERN TX STILL CAUGHT IN A RIDGE OVER THE 
PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 ATLC FRONT MOVES TO 31N59W 27N70W 
WITH WINDS TO 20 KT ON EITHER SIDE. ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY 
WITH AXIS MOVING E TO 70W. GFS MODEL SHOWS LOW CENTER IN TROPICS 
NEAR 10N36W. POSITION IS ON ITCZ AND STRENGTH COULD BE 
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. 
       
OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 STRONG UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVING NE WITH MID LEVEL 
HEIGHTS RISING SLOWLY ALONG OUR BORDER. STILL WEAK SHORTWAVES 
MOVING SE BRUSHING BY 30N. MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE CENTER NEAR 
28N45W EXTENDING WSW TO 24N80W. SERIES OF WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS 
EMBEDDED IN ELY FLOW ON S SIDE OF MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 3..THE FOURTH OF JULY..THE ATLC RIDGE CENTER REMAINS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A WEAK RIDGE WSW TO 25N70W. LOW PRES 
OVER NE FL WITH SE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER E QUAD. CARIB WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT OVER CENTRAL PORTION. RETURN FLOW OVER WRN GULF INCREASES 
SOME TO 20 KT. WEAK LOW NEAR 11N38W.

FOR DAY 4 ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLIES DROPS SE OVER THE 
NEW ENGLAND AREA BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE FIRST ONE..THUS MID 
LEVEL HEIGHTS NOT FALLING ALONG OUR BORDER. MID LEVEL RIDGE 
CENTER ELONGATED E/W ALONG 27N WITH CENTER NEAR 55W. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 4 ATLC FRONT WASHING OUT ALONG 29N E OF 60W WITH 
LIGHT WINDS. ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK WITH AXIS ALONG 27N E OF 
80W. RETURN FLOW OVER WRN GULF SELY TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS STILL 
LIT UP AT 20 TO 25 KT. CIRCULATION OVER TRPL ATLC WEAKENS. 

FOR DAY 5 STRONG SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLIES GET NEW SURGE OF COLD 
AIR AS IT MOVES SE AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLOWLY ALONG 30N W 
OF 65W. MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING W WITH CENTER NEAR 
26N70W AND CONNECTING TO RIDGE OVER PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 
ATLC RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N EXTENDS W TO 1020 MB HIGH CENTER OVER 
NW GULF. GULF WINDS DECREASE BUT CARIB WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE 
SAME AT 20 TO 25 KT.   

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG