000
AGXX40 KNHC 011523
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 01 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THE SW FL 
COAST IS EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED BY SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE 
NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH A BOUNDARY PERSISTING OFF THE SW COAST OF 
FL THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PREVENT THE ATLC RIDGE 
FROM EXTENDING W OF THE FL STRAITS. THUS...THE WEAK HIGH PRES 
CENTERED NEAR 27N87W WILL MEANDER IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA 
THROUGH FRI. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY 
ALONG 76W WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON AND MOVE 
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. WINDS 
WILL BACK BRIEFLY TO NE 15-20 KT AND THEN SHIFT TO SE AT 15-20 
KT BEHIND WAVE...THEN CONTINUE IN THIS RANGE ALONG OUTSIDE 
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE THROUGH FRI. 
        
SW ATLC...LOW LEVEL TROUGH FAIRLY WELL DEFINED THIS A.M. FROM 
31N76W TO CENTRAL FL. EXPECT TROUGH TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE AND BE 
OVERRUN LATE MON BY A WEAK...BUT FAST MOVING...COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY OVER S CAROLINA. MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE THIS PAST 
RUN...AND NOW SUGGEST THAT FRONT WILL MOVE E OF BERMUDA MON 
NIGHT WHILE TRAILING MERGED FRONT AND TROUGH BOUNDARY INTO NW 
BAHAMAS. WINDS QUICKLY VEER FROM NW TO ENE 15-20 KT N OF FRONT 
WITH NWW3 ONLY BUILDING 4-6 FT N OF FRONT...EXCEPT MAYBE 6-8 FT 
NEAR BERMUDA. THIS RAPIDLY CHANGING FORECAST SCENARIO IS LIKELY 
DUE A MID-UPPER CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO... WHICH APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT. I 
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF TROUGH WED AND THU NW WATERS IN THIS 
MORNINGS OFFSHORE PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER 
PACKAGES. NWW3 SEEMS OK THIS MORNING IN SW ATLC BASED ON 2 
ALTIMETER PASSES LAST NIGHT.    
       
TROPICAL ATLC ZONE...E WINDS 10-15 KT N PART WITH SEAS IN 4-6 FT 
RANGE THROUGH PERIOD. NE-E WINDS 15-20 KT S OF 17N WILL DIMINISH 
TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WED...THEN INCREASE 
WED THROUGH IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL WAVE.  

CARIBBEAN...NE-E TRADES AT 20-30 KT S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W 
WITH Q-SCAT PAINTING A FEW 30 KT BARBS WELL N OF OF COLOMBIAN 
COAST. THUS...I REMOVED MENTION OF 30 KT ONLY ALONG COLOMBIAN 
COAST...AND FORECAST WINDS TO 30 KT IN SAME AREA THROUGH TUE... 
THEN FORECAST 20-25 KT THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON