000
AGXX40 KNHC 010513
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT SUN JUL 01 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA TONIGHT STRETCHING FROM 
THE ERN ATLC TO THE GULF AND OVER THE PLAINS. WEAK VORTICITY 
CENTERS ARE EMBEDDED THROUGH OUT MUCH OF THIS RIDGE STRUCTURE 
WITH ONLY WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. A STRONG UPPER 
TROUGH IS NOTED DROPPING SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH THE 
MAIN SURGE OF ENERGY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT WEAK TRPL WAVES WERE ALONG 35W AND 71W MOVING W 15 KT. 
THE ERN ONE HAS MORE POTENTIAL BUT IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ITCZ AND OF LOW LATITUDE. 

LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL SLOWLY W OF 60W AS THE 
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WORKS IT'S WAY SE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL MID LEVEL PICTURE. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1..THE FIRST DAY OF JULY..A 1029 MB HIGH 
ANCHORS THE ATLC RIDGE NEAR 32N41W WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO 
23N80W. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WITH LIGHT 
WINDS. THE USUAL GUSTY ELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIB 
WHERE THE ATLC RIDGE PRESSES AGAINST THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMA LOW 
PRESSURE. ATLC TRADES MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT. 

FOR DAY 2 LOOK FOR SOME FURTHER LOWERING OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS W 
OF 60W AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWINGS SE. MID LEVEL RIDGING 
REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WITH A COUPLE OF INVERTED TROUGHS ON THE S 
SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALONG 35W AND 60W PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH 
TRPL WAVES. A PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS HOLDS ON OVER 
ERN TX STUCK IN A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF 
THE WESTERLIES FURTHER N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A WEAK COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE NRN PORTION OF 
THE REGION ALONG 30N W OF 70W WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. OTHERWISE 
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.  

OUTLOOK PERIOD...   

FOR DAY 3 WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING E TO 55W..THE 
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER OVER THE ERN ATLC BEGINS TO SHIFT WWD TO 
NEAR 28N40W. THE WESTERLIES BRUSH BY ALONG 30N W OF 55W WITH 
WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS EMBEDDE IN THE FLOW. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 
A WEAKENED ATLC RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER MID OCEAN WITH IT'S 
AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO THE SE BAHAMAS. WEAK HIGH PRES REMAINS 
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS ALTHOUGH SOME RETURN FLOW 
SETS UP W OF 95W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT OVER CENTRAL 
PORTION WHILE ATLC TRADES DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. GFS MODEL 
HINTING AT SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRPL WAVES OVER THE ATLC.

FOR DAY 4..THE FOURTH OF JULY..AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH 
DEPARTS THE REGION AN HEADS E..MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE 
SLOWLY. THE MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG 28N 
RIDGING WSW TO THE SE GULF. EMBEDDED WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS 
CONTINUE ALONG THE S SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH 
TRPL WAVES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 WEAK LOW PRES OVER FL DRIFTS 
OFF THE NE FL COAST  WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. THE ATLC COLD 
FRONT REMAINS ALONG 30N MOVING EWD WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. 
ELSEWHERE LITTLE CHANGE.

FOR DAY 5 A PAIR OF MODERATE SHORTWAVES APPEAR IN THE WESTERLIES 
OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVING ESE BUT THEY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME 
MOVING FURTHER S DUE TO A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE 
ALONG 28N WHICH IS CENTERED NEAR 50W. WEAK VORT CENTER OVER THE 
NE GULF MOVING ESE WHILE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH TRPL WAVES 
MOVE EWD TO 50W AND 75W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 WIND PATTERNS WILL 
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. A 1027 MB HIGH WILL ANCHOR THE ATLC RIDGE 
NEAR 31N38W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO THE NW BAHAMAS.  

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG