000 AGXX40 KNHC 281759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS WEAK TROUGH STRETCH NE TO 31N80W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CARIBBEAN SEA PROMPTS AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER CENTRAL BAHAMAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALREADY IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH CREST OF TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED BY WEAK 40 KT JET CORE ADDS FUEL TO MIXTURE. SW N ATLC SHOULD BE UNDER PLENTY OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SPREADING N FRI THEN DECREASING SAT AND SUN...BUT REMAINING MOIST OVERALL. ERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES DRY WHILE WRN CARIBBEAN UNDER WEAK JET KEEPS ALL THE MOISTURE TO ITSELF WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION OVER SWRN CORNER NEAR NICARAGUA AND PANAMA. GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING TO SEE MOISTURE WRAPAROUND CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A BREAK IN ITS DRY SPELL. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO POP UP IN CENTRAL GULF LIKELY TO INCREASE AS TROPICAL WAVE PROVIDES GOOD UPLIFTING MECHANISM. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRES RIDGE NE OF AREA COMPLETELY DOMINATES SW N ATLC AS IT DRIFTS SE THROUGH FORECAST AND OUTLOOK PERIODS. DEEP EASTERLIES BACK SE THROUGH TUE GIVING WAY TO MODERATE SW FLOW WITH APPROACH OF WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS MID ATLC SEABOARD. TAIL END OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENCROACHES INTO NRN LATITUDES OF SW N ATLC WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WIND OR SEAS. GFS...NAM AND UKMET TAKE VORTICITY MAX OVER FLORIDA AND TRACK IT N-NE...ABSORBED BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE... LIGHT E TO SE WINDS OVER GULF THROUGH TUE EXCEPT NEAR TRPCL WAVE AXIS WHERE MODERATE GUSTY WINDS COULD TEMPORARILY INCREASE WIND AND SEAS. STRONG TRADES IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI BECOME MODERATE TRADES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH TUE AS ATLC HIGH PRES MOVES FURTHER E. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES