000
AGXX40 KNHC 261745
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NRN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS 
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE STRENGTHENS NEAR 23N63W.  STRONG 
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ENHANCING CONVECTION 
JUST E OF BAHAMAS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH.  TROUGH EXPECTED TO GIVE 
WAY TO STRENGTHENING RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO GULF OF 
MEXICO THU AND FRI.

TROUGH STRETCHES INTO SE GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE BUT WITH SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS ENTIRE GULF...UPLIFTING 
SIGNIFICANTLY CURTAILED.  

CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DRY ALOFT FROM 13N-17N AND TRPCL N ATLC IS 
ALSO DRY COVERED BY UPPER RIDGE NE OF PUERTO RICO.  NOT EVEN 
TRPCL WAVES NOW ALONG 70W AND 79W ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER N OF 13N.      

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1035 MB HAS RIDGE ALONG 35N DRIFT S TO 30N THU 
AND TO 28N SAT.  WEAK LOW PRES OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA MAINTAIN 
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGH FRI IN SRN HALF OF CARIBBEAN SEA. 
TIGHT GRADIENT JUSTIFIES 25-30 KT PRESENTLY OBSERVED IN BASIN.  
ATLC RIDGE EXPANDS SWATH OF STRONG EASTERLIES INTO SW N ATLC S 
OF 26N AS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND NAM MODELS.  SMALL AREA OF 850 MB 
HIGH RELATIVE VORTICITY FOLLOWS CREST OF TRPCL WAVE INTO BAHAMAS 
AND SE FLORIDA THU AND FRI IN ALL THREE MODELS BUT WITH THREE 
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.  NAM TURNS IT INTO STRONG FEATURE WITH 
STRONGER WINDS WHILE UKMET BRINGS VORT MAX INTO SE FLORIDA WITH 
BARELY ANY EFFECTS.  GFS TAKES MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH 
INCREASING EASTERLIES A NOTCH BY THU AND FRI THEN TAKES VORT MAX 
INTO FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH NO FURTHER MARINE EFFECTS.  FORECAST 
FOLLOWS GFS SOLUTION.  

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES