000 AGXX40 KNHC 240502 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS GETS MESSIER BY THE DAY WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WORKING THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NW GULF COAST TONIGHT. A SECOND STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR 34N40W AND IN BETWEEN LIES A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ALONG 60W THAT IS TRYING TO MAKE IT'S EXIT. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT TRPL WAVES REMAIN WEAK AND OF LOW LATITUDE MAINLY PERTURBING THE ITCZ WHICH IS TYPICAL OF EARLY SEASON. ONE IS ALONG 49W ANOTHER NEAR 67W. THE ATLC RIDGE..THE MAIN PLAYER DURING THE WARM SEASON IS ANCHORED OVER MID OCEAN RIDGING WSW TO 70W. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIB AND ATLC TRADES WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 25 KT. LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL RIDGES TRY TO HOLD THEIR OWN BUT VORTICITY CONTINUES TO MAKE INRODES. AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP ON THE S SIDE OF THE ERN ATLC RIDGE ALONG 38W WHILE MULTIPLE VORT CENTERS WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE MID CONUS RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SW ATLC NE OF THE BAHAMAS..WHATS LEFT OF A WEAK LOW THAT WAS OFF THE NE FL COAST. THERES WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT IT TO IS DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE THE ATLC RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 70W AND WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN GULF IS TRYING TO MERGE WITH THE RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL WIND PATTERNS. FOR DAY 2 WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH ALONG 60W..MID LEVEL RIDGES BEGIN TO MERGE ALONG 30N. INVERTED TROUGHING AT MID LEVELS OVER THE MID ATLC S OF THE ATLC RIDGE MIGRATES WWD TO 45W. THE ERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES EWD. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 WHILE HIGH PRES DOMINATES..THE AXIS SHIFTS NWD TO 33N. THIS ALLOWS TRADES TO STRENGTHEN AS THE EASTERLIES DEEPEN. RETURN FLOW INCREASES W OF 90W AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN GULF MERGES WITH THE ATLC RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CARIB OR ATLC TRADES. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL RIDGES BECOMING MORE DOMINANT AS THE WESTERLIES MOVE SLOWLY NWD. THE ERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLC REGION WITH WEAK VORTICITY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER ERN TX. THE ERN MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 40W WHILE INVERTED TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SLIDE WWD TO 50W S OF 25N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 NO WELL DEFINED TRPL WAVES YET ALTHOUGH THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME CURVATURE AT APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREE SEPARATION WHICH WOULD BE TYPICAL OF WAVES. OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES ALTHOUGH THE AXIS REMAIN N OF THE AREA. MOST SECTION WITH MODERATE WINDS EXCEPT FOR THE CARIB E OF 80W WHERE 25 TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION. FOR DAY 4 SOME RECONFIGURATION OF THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OVER OUR REGION WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGES READJUSTING BUT GENERALLY STAYING ALONG 30N. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE MID TRPL ATLC DRIFTS WWD TO 52W WHILE WEAK VORTICITY TRIES TO SLIDE UNDER THE ERN CONUS RIDGE INTO THE GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A 1027 MB HIGH ANCHORS THE ATLC RIDGE NEAR 33N52W WITH THE AXIS REMAINING ALONG 33N BUT EXTENDING W TO 95W. MODERATE ELY WINDS MOST AREAS EXCEPT OVER THE CARIB WHERE 25 KT WILL PREVAIL. FOR DAY 5 FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN S OF 35N WITH THE WESTERLIES N OF 35N. SOME INDICATION OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE OVER SE CANADA WILL PROBABLY LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN ATLC AND S TO OUR BORDER. MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE POSITION NEAR 22N40W WITH PATTERN CURIOUSLY NON-DISCRIPT. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 A 1027 MB HIGH ANCHORS THE ATLC RIDGE NEAR 33N53W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. GULF WINDS DECREASE WITH WEAKENING GRADIENT. MOST OTHER AREAS SEE SOME DECREASE IN WINDS WITH THE CARIB AND TRPL ATLC CONTINUING TO HAVE 20 KT WINDS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER RRG