000 AGXX40 KNHC 231734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN...INDUCED BY 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND TROUGHING OVER THE W ATLC...HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND SEAS LOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. SHIPS/BUOYS AND THIS MORNING'S QSCAT PASS SHOWED VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE E GULF AND LIGHT SE TO S WINDS IN THE W GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FLARED UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE S TX AND NE MEXICO COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER S MEXICO AND A SHARP SHORTWAVE ABOVE THE SRN PLAINS. NWP MODELS SHOW SELY FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN THE W GULF TONIGHT PERSISTING THRU EARLY WORKWEEK LIKELY CAUSED BY A SURGE BEHIND THE NRN BRANCH OF A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY TITLED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORM E-SELY TOMORROW NIGHT/MON AS A STRONGER HIGH PRES RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE N GULF COAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... THIS MORNING'S QSCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIB WITH 15-20 KT COVERING A LARGE PORTION N AND E. NWW3 SHOWS MAX SEAS IN THE 9-11 FT RANGE. ALTIMETER DATA MISSED THIS AREA...BUT MODEL LOOKED IN-LINE WITH JASON IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY INCREASE THRU WED ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING ATLC HIGH PRES AND A TROPICAL WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS HAS DONE A DECENT JOB INITIALIZING THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 50W. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT HELPS PICK UP E TO SE WINDS SUN NIGHT AND MON IN THE E CARIB AND TUE AND WED ELSEWHERE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 10+ FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIB ON WED WITH MAX NEAR 16 FT. SW N ATLANTIC... WEAK 1013 MB LOW MAY BE GENERATING SOME SW WINDS TO 20 KT WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY IN TSTM ACTIVITY WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 72W-74W. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO DROP THIS FROM THE HIGH SEAS IN 24-H...WHICH IS PROBABLY GENEROUS GIVEN THE VERY EXPOSED STRUCTURE OF THE LOW. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT MUCH OF CONCERN AT THE PRESENT GIVEN WEAK PATTERN REGIME. TYPICAL ELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON MON AND INCREASE THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STRENGTHENS. SIMILARLY TO THE CARIB...THIS INCREASE IN WINDS IS LIKELY AIDED BY A SURGE BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING 50W. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD THRU TUE/WED POSSIBLY REACHING 8 FT S OF 24N E OF THE BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI