000
AGXX40 KNHC 220452
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT DRIVING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TONIGHT 
WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES. ONE PUSHING OFF THE NE FL COAST 
ANOTHER BACK OVER THE MID WEST. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE COVERS 
THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT. A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE 
REGION S OF 25N WITH A MID LEVEL CENTER OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 
25N35W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT TRPL WAVES WERE NEAR 34W..47W AND 
82W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW WAS OVER NE FL. THE ATLC RIDGE WAS 
WEAKLY DEPICTED ALONG 25N E OF 60W. 

LATER DAY 1 NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING SWD OVER NEW 
ENGLAND WILL CLOSE OFF A LARGE LOW CENTER AND LOWER MID LEVEL 
HEIGHTS N OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 75W. LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGING 
OVER CENTRAL CONUS WITH TRAPPED EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS. ON 
THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHOW NEW 
LIFE EXTENDING WWD ALONG 24N W TO NEAR 80W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 
20 TO 25 KT WHILE ATLC TRADES 15 TO 20 KT. REMAINDER OF AREA 
MOSTLY LIGHT.

FOR DAY 2 SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT DRIVES SSE ALONG 70W WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIVERT NWLY FLOW DOWN INTO OUR AREA. EMBEDDED WEAK 
SHORTWAVES STUCK IN RIDGE OVER SE CONUS WORKING THEIR WAY EWD. 
GFS MODEL SHOWS VORT CENTER OVER NW CARIB ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE. 
ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 MODEL DOESN'T DO ANYTHING WITH WAVE AS IT 
MOVES WNW INTO YUCATAN. ATLC RIDGE WITH ANCHOR 1026 MB OVER MID 
ATLC EXTENDS WSW TO 23N70W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT. ATLC 
TRADES INCREASE ABIT WHILE REMAINDER OF AREA MOSTLY LIGHT.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WORKING 
EWD WITH LESSENING AFFECT ON OUR REGION. SOME VORTICITY DROPPING 
DOWN TO NW GULF COAST WITH MORE UPSTREAM OVER NW TX. INVERTED 
TROUGHING SETTING UP ON S SIDE OF RIDGE OVER ERN ATLC. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 3 ATLC RIDGE BECOMING DOMINATE FEATURE EXTENDING WWD 
WITH AXIS SHIFTING N TO 30N. MODERATE TRADES S OF 20N WITH WINDS 
PICKING UP OVER WRN GULF. 

FOR DAY 4 WEAK VORT CENTERS STILL TRAPPED IN LARGE SCALE MID 
LEVEL RIDGE W OF 80W. MID LEVEL TR0UGHING SETS UP OVER BAHAMAS 
WHILE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 45W STRENGTHENS SOME. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 4 ATLC RIDGE LOOKING LIKE SEASONAL NORMAL WITH AXIS ALONG 
30N INTO WRN GULF. MODERATE E AND SE WINDS MOST AREAS EXCEPT 
NEAR RIDGE AXIS.

FOR DAY 5 NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES STILL PROGRESSIVE BUT N OF 
AREA WITH LITTLE AFFECT S OF 35N. CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES E 
TO 80W AND WEAKENS..RELEASING GRIP ON WEAK VORT CENTERS WHICH 
MIGRATE AROUND N GULF. INVERTED TROUGHING ALONG 50W WORKING IT'S 
WAY WWD BENEATH STRONG CLOSED RIDGE LOCATED OVER MID ATLC NEAR 
33N42W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 AREA MOSTLY DOMINATED BY ATLC RIDGE 
WITH AXIS NOW N OF AREA. MODERATE ELY FLOW OVER REGION WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS OVER CARIB.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG